076
FXUS63 KIND 100456
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1256 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
- RAIN RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AND RENEWED FLOODING
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. BLENDED
IN SOME HIGHER-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE TO BETTER CAPTURE LOCAL
VARIABILITIES WITHIN THE VARIOUS PARAMETER FIELDS, ESPECIALLY WITH
WINDS OVERNIGHT AND WITH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. WINDS SO FAR THIS
EVENING HAVE BEEN A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO
EFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION.
REFINED THE TIMING OF POPS FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT. UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS QUITE EXPANSIVE BUT AN OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS IT PROGRESSES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT. REGARDLESS, AT LEAST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH NW PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BY 10Z.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WERE NUDGED TOWARDS HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IN ORDER TO CAPTURE THE SHARPNESS OF FRIDAY
EVENING'S COLD FRONT. READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S QUICKLY FALL
INTO THE 40S BY MIDNIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING, READINGS IN THE 30S
ARE POSSIBLE FROM I-70 NORTHWARD.
DISCUSSION (THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE REST OF TODAY REMAINS THE UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. WITH CENTRAL
INDIANA SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE GREAT LAKES, STRONG WAA IS OCCURRING. DEEP MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO TAP INTO 25-30 KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF
THE LAYER, RESULTING IN SURFACE GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE MIXING PROCESSES, COMBINED WITH A PERSISTENT DRY LAYER SAMPLED
IN RECENT SOUNDINGS, WILL LIKELY DROP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID-70S, ROUGHLY 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE
NORMS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER PERSISTS. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE WABASH VALLEY, BUT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE PREDAWN HOURS FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE PRIMARY UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DETACHED FROM THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO CANADA. CONSEQUENTLY,
WHILE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, THE LACK OF ROBUST DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY, GENERALLY UNDER 500 J/KG OF
CAPE, WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE RETURN MAY OVERLAP WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN MANAGEABLE, GENERALLY UNDER HALF AN
INCH. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR BY FRIDAY EVENING, USHERING IN A
SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL MILD AIRMASS FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID-60S TO LOW 70S.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD FEATURES A HIGHLY AMPLITUDE PATTERN SHIFT THAT
WARRANTS CLOSE MONITORING FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. SUNDAY
SERVES AS A TRANSITION DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND
INTENSE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RESUMES. ENSEMBLES, INCLUDING THE GEFS
AND EPS, ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT REGARDING A RAPID SURGE IN 850MB
TEMPERATURES, WHICH SHOULD PROPEL SURFACE HIGHS INTO THE LOW 80S BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGE-BUILDING PHASE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A
POTENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH BEGINS ITS EASTWARD EJECTION. BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, A BROAD THETA-E RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE
MIDWEST, CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. THE
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL THEN MOVE TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, RESULTING IN THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET (LLJ)
AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL CREATE A CLASSIC
SPRING SETUP FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WHILE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
STILL SHOW TIMING DISCREPANCIES REGARDING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES, THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WINDOW CENTERING
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE PROJECTED KINEMATIC PROFILES AND
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY, ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
IMPACTS:
- LLWS THROUGH DAYBREAK
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
- MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON
- WIND GUSTS PEAKING AT 20 TO 25KT TODAY
DISCUSSION:
THE EXPANSION OF A LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
DAYBREAK BEFORE SURFACE MIXING INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL
REACH KLAF NEAR OR JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK THEN EXPAND SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY MINIMAL BUT
DO EXPECT MVFR STRATUS TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL THIN
FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING WITH KLAF LIKELY TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.
FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL LINGER AT THE OTHER
TERMINALS.
S/SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK WITH GUSTS
PEAKING AT 20 TO 25KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO
NORTHWEST ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THIS AFTERNOON THEN NORTHERLY
TONIGHT.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ECKHOFF
AVIATION...RYAN
DISCUSSION...WHITE
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