586
FXUS63 KIND 101548
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1148 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
- DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH MUCH WARMER AIR RETURNING BY SUNDAY
- CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS RETURNS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND RENEWED FLOODING
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 937 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING,
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT ITSELF REMAINS FARTHER NORTHWEST IN
NORTHWEST INDIANA.
DRY LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CURRENT AREA OF RAIN, WHICH MAY
HELP INITIALLY IMPEDE THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE BAND OF RAIN.
RAISED POPS WHERE RAIN IS FALLING AND TO THE EAST WHERE IT WILL MOVE
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TIGHTENED THE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT OF
POPS SO THAT POPS WERE LOWERED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING. ALSO, REMOVED THUNDER MENTION THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
NO LIGHTNING OBSERVED OR EXPECTED WITH THE WEAK CONVECTION.
THIS AFTERNOON, MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE SOME SOUTH. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WITH INCREASED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE RECOVERY REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, SO THE HIGHER END OF THE POPS HAS LOWER CONFIDENCE.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR IF INSTABILITY GETS HIGH ENOUGH,
BUT NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TEMPERATURES, AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER
MAY LIMIT READINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER, WITH READINGS ALREADY ABOVE GUIDANCE THIS MORNING,
LEFT FORECAST HIGHS ALONE FOR NOW.
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
HIGH CLOUDS WERE INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. ALL OF
THE SHOWERS WERE POSTFRONTAL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF ILLINOIS.
06Z TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE FRONT WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR SATURDAY BEFORE SURGING BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA INTO THE FIRST HALF NEXT
WEEK...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING PERIODIC CONVECTIVE THREATS TO THE
REGION IN A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
CONVECTION HAS STEADILY WEAKENED TO THE WEST AS INSTABILITY HAS BEEN
LOST. THESE SHOWERS WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY
SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK AND CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY GRADUALLY WEAKENING. DRY ADIABATIC
FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PULL DOWN GUSTS TO NEAR 25 MPH
AT TIMES INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL KEEP ANY
CONVECTION SCATTERED. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ANY THUNDER WILL BE
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-70 FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
PRESS SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVECT MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS TONIGHT MAY MAKE IT AS LOW AS
36 OR 37 DEGREES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA BUT ANY FROST ACCRUAL
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST WITH WINDS HOVERING AT 5-10MPH ALL
NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT FROM LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY MORNING INTO
NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ONCE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY...A WINDY AND MUCH WARMER AIRMASS WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
LOWER 80S.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL REGIME HIGHLIGHTED BY A WESTERN TROUGH AND
AN EASTERN RIDGE WILL SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE AS
MULTIPLE PIECES OF ENERGY EJECT OUT FROM TROUGH AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MULTIPLE
DAY RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THAT WILL INITIALLY ALIGN TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WHILE THE EXTENDED MODEL SUITE REMAINS IN A BIT OF FLUX ON POTENTIAL
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LOCALLY...THERE REMAINS A FOCUS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE KICKS OUT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. GIVEN THE PROJECTED
KINEMATIC PROFILES AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD BE IN PLAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S EACH DAY.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
IMPACTS:
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CEILINGS.
- RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION:
A COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. AS THE FRONT PASSES, MVFR CEILINGS, AS
SEEN ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS, ARE EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING, BUT HRRR
SUGGESTS NEW DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SLIDES
SOUTHWARD AND WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID AIR AMID MAX HEATING OF
THE DAY. AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
LIMITED, SO ANY PREVAILING SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR A GREAT
DURATION.
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS, SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
THIS EVENING, AS SEEN IN UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. OVERNIGHT, STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD
TO A RETURN TO VFR.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...50
AVIATION...PUMA
DISCUSSION...RYAN
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