048
FXUS63 KIND 110432
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1232 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ENDING BY
EARLY EVENING
- DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH MUCH WARMER AIR RETURNING BY SUNDAY
- CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS RETURNS THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND RENEWED FLOODING
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 928 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. OUR
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 9PM ALREADY SHOWS SUCH CLEARING NORTH OF
LAFAYETTE, RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHWARD.
WITH CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS, TEMPERATURES MAY DIP INTO THE
30S ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70. AS OF RIGHT NOW, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH (UPPER 30S) WITH ENOUGH WINDS (5-10MPH)
TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, SOME HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SHOWS LIGHTER WINDS AND THEREFORE LOWER TEMPERATURES. SHOULD THIS
END UP BEING THE CASE, THEN PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM
LAFAYETTE TO FRANKFORT TO KOKOMO AND NORTHWARD, AS WELL AS IN
SURROUNDING RURAL AREAS.
DISCUSSION (THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...
A LACK OF DECENT MOISTURE HAS KEPT SHOWER COVERAGE LOWER THAN
EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS INCREASING,
AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE TO GO WITH
ANYTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE CATEGORY POPS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CAN'T BE RULED OUT, MAINLY SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO
THE 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL NORTH AS COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WORKS IN.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK IN TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING. COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE UPPER
30S NORTH TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTH. FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA MAY
DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S, BUT LIGHT WINDS SHOULD KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL
FROST AT BAY.
THE HIGH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET ON SATURDAY, BUT CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN AS WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 60S.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL NUDGE INTO THE AREA, KEEPING UPPER
SUPPORT NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER,
FEEL THAT ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.
SUNDAY NIGHT, A STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD, WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN USA AND UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN USA. AT LEAST INTO MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA WITH A SLOWLY MOVING
FRONT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK AS GUIDANCE DIFFERS
ON WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND ALLOW A SURFACE FRONT TO
MOVE INTO OR THROUGH THE AREA.
THE RESULT WILL BE IN DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EARLY IN THE WEEK RAIN CHANCES WILL FROM UPPER IMPULSES MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GENERATING FORCING. MID TO LATE
WEEK CHANCES WILL COME FROM THE POTENTIAL FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AND
FRONT MOVE INTO/THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS COULD REACH THE MID 80S
AT TIMES, DEPENDING ON TIMING OF ANY RAIN.
THERE IS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AT TIMES EARLY TO MID WEEK AS THE
SURFACE FRONT GETS INTO THE AREA, WITH WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
IMPACTS:
- NONE
DISCUSSION:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT
MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REGION. STRATUS CONTINUES TO SHIFT
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL BE CLEAR OF ALL OF THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN 06 AND 07Z. ONCE THE STRATUS SHIFTS SOUTH...MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS INTO THE AREA AS A WARM
FRONT.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING TO EASTERLY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY THEN SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ECKHOFF
AVIATION...RYAN
DISCUSSION...50
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