995
FXUS63 KIND 120448
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1248 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY SUNDAY WITH MUCH WARMER AIR RETURNING
- CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS RETURNS NEXT WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOCUSED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
- WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALL NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE DAYS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 944 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. WIND GUSTS ON
SUNDAY MAY TOP OUT BETWEEN 25-30KT AT TIMES AS THE MSLP GRADIENT
TIGHTENS DUE TO A SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH. MID TO HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT AT TIMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DESPITE LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY THIN CLOUDS TONIGHT,
ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S.
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHILE
INCREASING. THIS SHOULD INTENSIFY WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THOUGH
CLOUDS MAY BE PRESENT, THEY SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH TO PROMOTE
EFFICIENT SOLAR INSOLATION AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. HIGHS IN THE
80S ARE LIKELY TOMORROW.
DISCUSSION (THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, AND TEMPERATURES
WILL PEAK A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA.
THERE WON'T BE MUCH UPPER SUPPORT FOR FORCING WITH THE WARM FRONT,
ESPECIALLY WITH UPPER RIDGING NUDGING INTO THE AREA. ALSO, OVERALL
MOISTURE IS LACKING. LIGHT SHOWERS OVER MISSOURI WILL LIKELY DRY UP
BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL INDIANA DUE TO THIS LACK OF MOISTURE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SPRINKLES CAME OUT OF MID CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AND STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN SOME. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH. THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER
WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM AROUND 80 TO
THE LOWER 80S.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, BRINGING A
ROUND OF FORCING TO CENTRAL INDIANA. MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, CLOSER TO THE UPPER WAVE ITSELF. SOME LOW
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE EXITS.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AROUND
WEDNESDAY.
UPPER WAVES MOVING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN UPPER TROUGHING TO THE
WEST AND UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST USA WILL GENERATE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. THESE STORMS MAY IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
IN PLACE, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR, ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH
CLOSER TO A SURFACE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR
BETTER CLARITY IN TIMING AND LOCATION.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON ANY SEVERE THREAT THOUGH. THIS WAVE WILL
BRING THE SURFACE FRONT CLOSER TO THE AREA, BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH GUIDANCE HAVING
DIFFERENT IDEAS ON HOW THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE WESTERN USA.
THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE TIMING OF FORCING AND OF THE SURFACE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY DEPENDING ON SKY COVER AND ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS. SATURDAY COULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL IF THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY THEN.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
IMPACTS:
- WIND GUSTS AT 25 TO 30KTS THIS AFTERNOON
- LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING THIS EVENING
- SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING AND
WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHWEST PRIOR TO MIDDAY AND BECOMING
GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PEAK GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
APPROACH 30KTS AT TIMES.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY
BEFORE THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
JET MOVES INTO THE REGION. WITH WINDS NEAR 50KTS AT 3KFT AGL...LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEGINNING DURING THE
EVENING.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ECKHOFF
AVIATION...RYAN
DISCUSSION...50
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