790
FXUS63 KIND 122257
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
657 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOCUSED LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
- WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALL NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE DAYS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 657 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
A POTENT CONVECTIVELY-AUGMENTED VORT MAX IS PASSING TO OUR
NORTHWEST. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A COMMA-SHAPED CLOUD SHIELD
OVER SOUTHEASTERN IOWA, MARKING ITS CURRENT LOCATION AS OF 7PM. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THE VORT MAX WILL HELP INTENSIFY A NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET
THIS EVENING, WHICH IS MODELED TO STRENGTHEN TO BETWEEN 55-65 KNOTS
IN THE 925-850MB LAYER.
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX IS STRONG, AND TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO NEAR 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THIS,
INSTABILITY IS ABSENT AS SHOWN BY RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS OUT OF IND.
ONE THING TO NOTE, HOWEVER, IS A DEEP INVERTED V SIGNATURE BELOW
800MB WHICH SIGNIFIES A DEEP MIXED LAYER. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS VERY
LOW, GUIDANCE SHOWS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR AT LEAST
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS RETAIN THE INVERTED
V SIGNATURE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITHIN THE AIR MASS PRECEDING THE VORT
MAX.
SINCE THE DEEP MIXED LAYER CONTAINS THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET, THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT COULD EFFICIENTLY MIX SOME OF
THIS MOMENTUM DOWNWARD. ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW, IT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THAT WIND GUSTS NEARING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY
OCCUR (~60MPH). CONDITIONS AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AS WE HEAD INTO THE NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY BLOWING DUST WHICH MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. BLOWING DUST IS MORE LIKELY IN RURAL AREAS
WHERE FARM FIELDS HAVE BEEN RECENTLY PLOWED.
DISCUSSION (THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TONIGHT, AN UPPER WAVE AND UPPER JET WILL
MOVE THROUGH, PROVIDING SOME LIFT. THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO BE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, CLOSER TO THE WAVE ITSELF. OVERALL MOISTURE
ISN'T GREAT, BUT IT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED TO PERHAPS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO PERHAPS MONDAY
MORNING. WILL GO CHANCE CATEGORY TO LOW END LIKELY CATEGORY POPS.
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT, CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WEAK UPPER IMPULSES MAY TRIGGER AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM, SO WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT NOTHING STRONG OR SEVERE IS EXPECTED.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WITH READINGS
DEPENDING SOMEWHAT ON HOW FAST CLOUDS BREAK UP.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE
WESTERN USA WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN USA.
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT
WILL INITIALLY BE WELL WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA, BUT IT WILL GET
CLOSER BY FRIDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AND KEEP DECENT MOISTURE IN THE AREA.
AN INITIAL ROUND OF UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND TUESDAY,
GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FRONT TO
THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY WEST OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER,
SOME OF THESE MAY GET INTO THE FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT.
A STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS MAY PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA, BUT THE SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST, CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT AGAIN.
THE UPPER WAVE MAY PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT CLOSER TO THE AREA IN ITS
WAKE, WHICH MAY KEEP THE THREAT OF RAIN AROUND AT TIMES INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, LACK OF UPPER FORCING WILL KEEP THE CHANCES LOWER.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND AND PUSH THE
SURFACE FRONT THROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE FRONT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN DETAILS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
IMPACTS:
- WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30KT THIS AFTERNOON
- LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING THIS EVENING
- SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
- MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
DISCUSSION:
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 30KT
POSSIBLE. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT, BUT STRONG WINDS ALOFT
WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SITES TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO GO ANYTHING BEYOND
PROB30S AT MOST SITES. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE. AFTER THE
SHOWERS PASS, CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WITHIN THE SETUP DESCRIBED IN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE, NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS WEEK, MAINLY TUESDAY,
WEDNESDAY, AND FRIDAY. WHETHER READINGS GET CLOSE DEPENDS ON SKY
COVER AND ANY RAIN STAYING AWAY, WHICH KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOWER AT
THIS TIME.
CURRENT DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS ARE COOLER THAN THE RECORDS, BUT
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS TO GET WITHIN A FEW DEGREES IF EVERYTHING LINES
UP. ON TUESDAY APRIL 14, INDY'S RECORD HIGH IS 85, SET IN 1883.
INDY'S RECORD HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY IS 84, SET IN 2002. ON FRIDAY APRIL
17, INDY'S RECORD HIGH IS 87, SET IN 1896.
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO IN PLAY AT TIMES GIVEN THE
WARM AND RELATIVELY HUMID AIRMASS. THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS
COMES MONDAY, WHEN THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM AT INDY IS 63, SET IN
2014 AND TIED IN 2018. AT THE MOMENT, THE FORECAST IS FOR TYING THAT
NUMBER.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
MESOSCALE...ECKHOFF
AVIATION...50
DISCUSSION...50
CLIMATE...50
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