137
FXUS63 KIND 130441
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1241 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOCUSED LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
- WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALL NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE DAYS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
A POTENT CONVECTIVELY-AUGMENTED VORT MAX IS PASSING TO OUR
NORTHWEST. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A COMMA-SHAPED CLOUD SHIELD
OVER SOUTHEASTERN IOWA, MARKING ITS CURRENT LOCATION AS OF 7PM. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THE VORT MAX WILL HELP INTENSIFY A NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET
THIS EVENING, WHICH IS MODELED TO STRENGTHEN TO BETWEEN 55-65 KNOTS
IN THE 925-850MB LAYER.
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX IS STRONG, AND TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO NEAR 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THIS,
INSTABILITY IS ABSENT AS SHOWN BY RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS OUT OF IND.
ONE THING TO NOTE, HOWEVER, IS A DEEP INVERTED V SIGNATURE BELOW
800MB WHICH SIGNIFIES A DEEP MIXED LAYER. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS VERY
LOW, GUIDANCE SHOWS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR AT LEAST
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS RETAIN THE INVERTED
V SIGNATURE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITHIN THE AIR MASS PRECEDING THE VORT
MAX.
SINCE THE DEEP MIXED LAYER CONTAINS THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET, THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT COULD EFFICIENTLY MIX SOME OF
THIS MOMENTUM DOWNWARD. ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS LOW, IT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THAT WIND GUSTS NEARING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY
OCCUR (~60MPH). CONDITIONS AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AS WE HEAD INTO THE NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY BLOWING DUST WHICH MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. BLOWING DUST IS MORE LIKELY IN RURAL AREAS
WHERE FARM FIELDS HAVE BEEN RECENTLY PLOWED.
DISCUSSION (THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TONIGHT, AN UPPER WAVE AND UPPER JET WILL
MOVE THROUGH, PROVIDING SOME LIFT. THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO BE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, CLOSER TO THE WAVE ITSELF. OVERALL MOISTURE
ISN'T GREAT, BUT IT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED TO PERHAPS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO PERHAPS MONDAY
MORNING. WILL GO CHANCE CATEGORY TO LOW END LIKELY CATEGORY POPS.
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT, CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WEAK UPPER IMPULSES MAY TRIGGER AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM, SO WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT NOTHING STRONG OR SEVERE IS EXPECTED.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WITH READINGS
DEPENDING SOMEWHAT ON HOW FAST CLOUDS BREAK UP.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE
WESTERN USA WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN USA.
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT
WILL INITIALLY BE WELL WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA, BUT IT WILL GET
CLOSER BY FRIDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AND KEEP DECENT MOISTURE IN THE AREA.
AN INITIAL ROUND OF UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND TUESDAY,
GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FRONT TO
THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY WEST OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER,
SOME OF THESE MAY GET INTO THE FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT.
A STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS MAY PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA, BUT THE SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST, CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT AGAIN.
THE UPPER WAVE MAY PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT CLOSER TO THE AREA IN ITS
WAKE, WHICH MAY KEEP THE THREAT OF RAIN AROUND AT TIMES INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, LACK OF UPPER FORCING WILL KEEP THE CHANCES LOWER.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND AND PUSH THE
SURFACE FRONT THROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE FRONT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN DETAILS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
IMPACTS:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH 09Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KTS POSSIBLE
- LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS
- MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
- WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25KTS LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING
DISCUSSION:
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH THE ACARS SOUNDING AT KIND
SHOWING DRY ADIABATIC FLOW BELOW 750MB...THE 50+KT LOW LEVEL FLOW
AT AROUND 3KFT IS HAVING NO DIFFICULTY IN BEING PULLED TO THE
SURFACE WITHIN SOME OF THE SHOWERS. PEAK GUSTS UP TO NEAR 40KTS HAVE
OCCURRED ACROSS ILLINOIS AND THE WESTERN HALF OF INDIANA OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SHOWERS SHIFT
EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY 08-09Z. OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25KTS WILL PERSIST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE
WILL PROMPT AN EXPANSION OF MVFR STRATUS INTO THE AREA AFTER
DAYBREAK AND LIKELY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MIXING BACK TO
VFR LEVELS INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH GUSTS PEAKING AT NEAR 25KTS BEFORE LOWERING
THIS EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON
FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WITHIN THE SETUP DESCRIBED IN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE, NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS WEEK, MAINLY TUESDAY,
WEDNESDAY, AND FRIDAY. WHETHER READINGS GET CLOSE DEPENDS ON SKY
COVER AND ANY RAIN STAYING AWAY, WHICH KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOWER AT
THIS TIME.
CURRENT DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS ARE COOLER THAN THE RECORDS, BUT
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS TO GET WITHIN A FEW DEGREES IF EVERYTHING LINES
UP. ON TUESDAY APRIL 14, INDY'S RECORD HIGH IS 85, SET IN 1883.
INDY'S RECORD HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY IS 84, SET IN 2002. ON FRIDAY APRIL
17, INDY'S RECORD HIGH IS 87, SET IN 1896.
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO IN PLAY AT TIMES GIVEN THE
WARM AND RELATIVELY HUMID AIRMASS. THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS
COMES MONDAY, WHEN THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM AT INDY IS 63, SET IN
2014 AND TIED IN 2018. AT THE MOMENT, THE FORECAST IS FOR TYING THAT
NUMBER.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AVIATION...RYAN
DISCUSSION...50
CLIMATE...50
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