613
FXUS63 KIND 290633
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
233 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE
- FLOODING THREAT ON AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA AFTER MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
FROST POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.
- SLOW WARM UP WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT....
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PASSING TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A
SECONDAR SHORTWAVE. THIS HAS LED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA, MAINLY FORCED BY
MARGINAL DEFORMATION WITHIN THE 850-700MB LOW. BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THE WAVE IS ALSO LEADING TO LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL IL,
OF WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING AS WELL.
THE GREATER FORCING WITHIN THE DEFORMATION TO THE SOUTH IS ALLOWING
FOR SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING CREATION. THIS SHOULD
REMAINED CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR, WITH HEAVIER
RAIN RATES IN THE AREA AS WELL. DUE TO THE MORE CONFINED AREA OF
FORCING, GREATER QPF IS EXPECTED, AND WITH PRIOR RAINFALL OF 3-5"
ACROSS THIS SAME AREA YESTERDAY, MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
THE WAVE SHOULD SLOWLY EXIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH ISENTROPIC
ENDUCED SHOWERS LEAVING THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NW FLOW WILL
USHER IN BEHIND THIS WAVE, WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED BUT POCKETS OF SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AS THE PBL BECOMES
WELL MIXED. ALTHOUGH NOT HAZARDOUS A FEW INSTANCES OF GRAUPEL WITHIN
THESE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTOIN WITHIN THIS NW FLOW WILL SLOWLY BUILD SURFACE
PRESSURE TO END THE WORK WEEK, WITH CLEARING SKIES BY TONIGHT. THE
RESULTING AIRMASS WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL, BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES, EFFECIENT DIURNAL COOLING TONIGHT
COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW AREAS IN THE WABASH VALLEY TO FALL BELOW 40
DEGREES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT
EXPECTED, PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON ELEVATED SURFACES OVER
THIS SAME AREA.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WHILE ENTRENCHED WITHIN SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSUE
EXITING TO THE EAST, SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY. LOW POPS WERE ADDED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CONSENSUS TIMING OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL
MOVE SE ACROSS THE REGION PINWHEELING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW CENTERED
SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO QUIET CONDITIONS WITH FREQUEST CIRRUS CLOUD COVER.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...
AS THE CLOSED LOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVE GRADUALLY EAST, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
WINDS REMAINING 5-10 MPH. BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE SURFACE HIGH RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS TO NEARLY OVER CENTRAL INDIANA PER THE EURO, BUT
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL INDIANA PER THE GFS. EITHER WAY, TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 32F
WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY AND POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD
FROST, ESPECIALLY IN OUTLYING AREAS BOTH MORNINGS. HIGHS NEAR 60F
(ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL) ARE EXPECTED FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING OUT OF CANADA. IN THE WAKE OF HIGH PRESSURE, EXPECT AT LEAST
A SLIGHT WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NBM
HAS LOW POPS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BASED ON SMOOTHING OUT THE
TIMING OF WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE W-NW FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN A FRONTAL
INTRUSION IN THE GULF THIS WEEKEND, MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MEAGER
AND ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PRIMARILY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED SUB-
SEVERE TS POSSIBLE.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
IMPACTS:
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TS TONIGHT AT ALL BUT KLAF.
- MVFR CEILINGS RETURN OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES WITH IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KHUF/KBMG.
- GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW OUT OF THE NW, PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25KT
DISCUSSION:
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH 06Z
OR SO, THEN MVFR AND SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. IFR IS EXPECTED BY 09Z AT KBMG AND LIKELY AT KHUF. CANNOT
RULE IFR OUT AT KIND BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING, REACHING VFR BY
AROUND 18Z.
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE,
ESPECIALLY AT KIND.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AVIATION...UPDIKE/50
DISCUSSION...CROSBIE/UPDIKE
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