102
FXUS63 KIND 291310
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
910 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON, STRONGEST
CELLS COULD PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND/OR GRAUPEL.
- FLOODING THREAT ON AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA AFTER MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
FROST POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.
- SLOW WARM UP WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 909 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY
EVOLVING AS EXPECTED. SHOWER COVERAGE CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE LAST FEW
DAYS CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER AWAY. MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BROADER
CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKEND OF THE SYSTEM AND HOW IT MAKE BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY
COOLING ALOFT WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL CREATE SOME
MILD INSTABILITY AS THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND ALLOW FOR THESE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST WITH LOW LFCS, BUT WITH
SHALLOW FREEZING LAYER, THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD PRODUCE
LIGHTNING AND/OR GRAUPEL. COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST TOWARDS MUNCIE,
BUT ANYWHERE ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR COULD SEE A SHOWER OR
TWO BY THE END OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN THREAT, THE
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY HELP TO BRING A FEW GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH
WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AROUND 25-35 MPH.
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS CAA REGIME
WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FROM THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT....
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PASSING TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. THIS HAS LED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, OF WHICH WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA, MAINLY
FORCED BY MARGINAL DEFORMATION WITHIN THE 850-700MB LOW. BROAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WAVE IS ALSO LEADING TO LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER CENTRAL IL, OF WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
MORNING AS WELL. THE GREATER FORCING WITHIN THE DEFORMATION TO THE
SOUTH IS ALLOWING FOR SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING
CREATION. THIS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR, WITH HEAVIER RAIN RATES IN THE AREA AS WELL. DUE TO THE
MORE CONFINED AREA OF FORCING, GREATER QPF IS EXPECTED, AND WITH
PRIOR RAINFALL OF 3-5" ACROSS THIS SAME AREA YESTERDAY, MINOR
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
THE WAVE SHOULD SLOWLY EXIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH ISENTROPIC
INDUCED SHOWERS LEAVING THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NW FLOW WILL
ARRIVE BEHIND THIS WAVE, WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED BUT POCKETS OF SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AS THE PBL BECOMES
WELL MIXED. ALTHOUGH NOT HAZARDOUS A FEW INSTANCES OF GRAUPEL WITHIN
THESE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THIS NW FLOW WILL SLOWLY BUILD SURFACE
PRESSURE TO END THE WORK WEEK, WITH CLEARING SKIES BY TONIGHT. THE
RESULTING AIRMASS WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL, BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES, EFFICIENT DIURNAL COOLING TONIGHT
COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW AREAS IN THE WABASH VALLEY TO FALL BELOW 40
DEGREES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT
EXPECTED, PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON ELEVATED SURFACES OVER
THIS SAME AREA.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WHILE ENTRENCHED WITHIN SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXITING TO THE EAST, SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY. LOW POPS WERE ADDED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CONSENSUS TIMING OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL
MOVE SE ACROSS THE REGION PINWHEELING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW CENTERED
SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO QUIET CONDITIONS WITH FREQUENT CIRRUS CLOUD COVER.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...
AS THE CLOSED LOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVE GRADUALLY EAST, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
WINDS REMAINING 5-10 MPH. BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE SURFACE HIGH RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS TO NEARLY OVER CENTRAL INDIANA PER THE EURO, BUT
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL INDIANA PER THE GFS. EITHER WAY, TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 32F
WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY AND POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD
FROST, ESPECIALLY IN OUTLYING AREAS BOTH MORNINGS. HIGHS NEAR 60F
(ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL) ARE EXPECTED FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING OUT OF CANADA. IN THE WAKE OF HIGH PRESSURE, EXPECT AT LEAST
A SLIGHT WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NBM
HAS LOW POPS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BASED ON SMOOTHING OUT THE
TIMING OF WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE W-NW FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN A FRONTAL
INTRUSION IN THE GULF THIS WEEKEND, MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MEAGER
AND ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PRIMARILY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED SUB-
SEVERE TS POSSIBLE.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
IMPACTS:
- SHOWERS WITH MVFR VIS THROUGH 14Z AT KIND AND KBMG
- ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER AT
KIND AND KLAF
- GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE NW, PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25KT
DISCUSSION:
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A DEPARTING WAVE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID MORNING
AT KIND AND UNTIL LATE MORNING AT KBMG. AT THESE SITES, IFR CEILINGS
MAY REMAIN INITIALLY BEFORE IMPROVING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. ALL
TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT KIND THIS AFTERNOON (LESS THAN 30% CHANCE AT
KLAF). CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHTNING COMPLETELY, BUT CHANCES WERE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ROUTINE GUSTS BETWEEN
18-23KT. GUSTS WITHIN SHOWERS MAY BE A BIT HIGHER. WINDS WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO LESS THAN 10KT. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK
AROUND 4000FT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS BEFORE BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...WHITE
AVIATION...UPDIKE
DISCUSSION...CROSBIE/UPDIKE
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