102
FXUS63 KIND 301037
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
637 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FROST
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
- SLOW WARM UP WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
CONDITIONS TO START THE MONTH MAY ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW
SEASONAL IN BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. THIS IS MOSTLY DUE
TO DEEP, PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER ONTARIO AND THE HUDSON BAY,
SUPPRESSING THE UPPER FLOW SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
GULF REGIONS. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE QUASI-STAGNENT,
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS THAT WILL PROVIDE SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. INITIALLY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
LOW LEVELS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY IN THE WAKE
OF YESTERDAY'S SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO CALMING WIND EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH CLOUD COVER MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE UPPER LEVELS. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD, A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
MIXING HEIGHTS TO 1KM WILL LIKELY LEAD TO GUSTY WIND ALONG AND NE OF
THE I-74 CORRIDOR FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FIRST OF THESE WEAK LOW LEVEL WAVES IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
NIGHT. MODEST MID LEVEL ASCENT WITHIN THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL BUOY TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO
INEFFICIENT DIURNAL COOLING, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO LOW
40S' ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMING THAN THIS MORNING.
BEHIND THIS WAVE, PRESSURE RISES WITHIN WEAK CAA WILL LEAD TO
CLEARING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN, PROVIDING OUR COLDEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE WEEK. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS IS FOR EFFICIENT DIURNAL COOLING
FRIDAY NIGHT TO PROMOTE NEAR FREEZING LOWS ACROSS FAR NE PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, AND FROST CONCERNS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR.
THESE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE MID 50S.
FOR SUNDAY, THE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. RADIATIONAL COOLING LOOKS MORE
FAVORABLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT WITH THE SURFACE FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY, THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW COOL
TEMPERATURES FALL AND WHETHER IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, A GRADUAL PATTERN SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED
AS THE PERSISTENT EASTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY. A MODEST
WARMUP IS EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD LATE-SPRING
NORMALS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LOW PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE WEEK DUE
TO WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW, CONFIDENCE IN
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS LOW. RECENT FRONTAL INTRUSIONS INTO THE GULF
HAVE SUPPRESSED DEEPER MOISTURE, WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY EARLY-
WEEK ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED AND MOISTURE-STARVED.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
IMPACTS:
- SHALLOW FOG AT KLAF THIS MORNING
- 15KT-20KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY AT KLAF
- LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS
DISCUSSION:
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING HAS LED TO PATCHY GROUND FOG NEAR
RIVER VALLEYS, OF WHICH IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING KLAF. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND BECOME ENE WITH TIME. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 18KT ARE POSSIBLE AT KLAF/KHUF/KIND THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS
SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP VIS ABOVE IMPACTFUL CRITERIA, BUT
CIGS WILL LOWER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, EVENTUALLY DROPPING TO LOW IFR
AFTER 05Z. BY DAWN, CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 14Z.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AVIATION...UPDIKE
DISCUSSION...WHITE/UPDIKE
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