472
FXUS63 KIND 021741
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
141 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FROST
LIKELY THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING
- MILDER BUT STILL LARGELY BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR RAIN; HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY THIS
MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES MOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH
OF I-70. FURTHER NORTH IT WAS A SUNNY START. 1330Z TEMPERATURES WERE
CHILLY IN THE 40S.
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PIVOT OFF TO THE EAST BY LATE DAY WITH
SHOWERS GRADUALLY SAGGING SOUTH AND DIMINISHING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. THE THICKER CLOUD SHIELD ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE WILL
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH DIURNAL CU FORMATION FURTHER
NORTH. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE BY LATE DAY AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OZARKS.
ANOTHER WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY FOR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT OVER THE NEXT 7
TO 10 DAYS AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE IMPACT
TO CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE A COOLER THAN NORMAL PATTERN WITH
TEMPERATURES PEAKS NEAR SEASONAL AND TEMPERATURE VALLEYS 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
FOR TODAY, A SIGNIFICANT DIP IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL KEEP
THE MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION, SIGNIFIED BY
850MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -2 AND -4C. AHEAD OF THIS DIP WILL BE
WEAK ASCENT, LEADING TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER AND VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS, MOSTLY OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
BUILDING PRESSURE BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOULD AID IN SKIES CLEARING LEADING TO ANOTHER NIGHT WITH FROST
POTENTIAL. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR A BULK OF THE FROST RISK TO BE
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE (CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS AND
COOLER 850MB TEMPS), BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WIDE
SPREAD THIS FROST WILL BE, MOSTLY DUE TO A CONSISTENT, BUT WEAK
SURFACE WIND. THE DAYTIME ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS A WEAK VORT MAX PIVOTS AROUND THE LARGER CANADIAN TROUGH.
SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ENOUGH LIFT THROUGH A SATURATED 850-700MB
LAYER FOR LIGHT SHOWERS, AND SO POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACROSS
NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
REGARDLESS OF THIS, ANY RAIN WILL BE WEAK WITH QPF VALUES LESS THAN
0.1".
THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED TEMPERATURE PEAKS WILL MOSTLY RESIDE AHEAD
OF POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVES AS RIDGING ATTEMPT TO PUSH IN FROM
THE WEST, THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH ABOVE SEASONAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON
MONDAY AS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH PEAK DIURNAL WARMING; CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR
MONDAY'S HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE
WILL BE PRECIPITATION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH, BUT THERE IS STILL ENSEMBLE
SPREAD ON THE PRECIPITATION AXIS, AND THEREFOR CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION SPECIFIC QPF IS RELATIVELY LOWER. INITIALLY, RAIN WILL
LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING ON MONDAY NIGHT,
BUT SHOULD TRANSITION TO SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE PROCESSES
THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME RISK OF HAIL ON MONDAY NIGHT
WITHIN FRONTAL CONVECTION DUE TO MODEST LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE PBL,
BUT THE SEVERE RISK LOOKS LOW ON TUESDAY WITH LAPSE RATES NEARING
MOIST ADIABATIC AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT NOT PROPERLY PHASED TO
OPTIMIZE SHEAR.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY WILL LIKELY
REINFORCE LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LEADING TO ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES. GIVEN THE GREATER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID-LEVEL SHEAR
ON WEDNESDAY, STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE DESPITE GREATER NEAR SURFACE STABILITY.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
IMPACTS:
- GUSTS OF 20KT TOMORROW AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION:
A BROKEN TO SCATTERED DECK OF AFTERNOON CU IS EXPANDING ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA AT AROUND 10KFT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING, WITH ONLY PASSING CIRRUS EXPECTED LATE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
WINDS FROM THE NW THROUGH THIS EVENING WHEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TAKE OVER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SW TOMORROW. GUSTY WINDS
ARE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW, PEAKING AROUND 25KT MAINLY FOR
IND AND LAF.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ030-031-
037>042-046>049-054>057-062>065-070>072.
UPDATE...RYAN
AVIATION...KF
DISCUSSION...UPDIKE
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