304
FXUS63 KIND 030432
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1232 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FROST
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT
- MILDER BUT STILL LARGELY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN; HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY
EVOLVING AS EXPECTED. THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE EXPECTED
FROST TONIGHT WITH MODELS GENERALLY REMAINING IN LINE WITH EARLIER
RUNS. A COUPLE RUNS SUCH AS THE WRF-ARW ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
COOLER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO THE WEST OF THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA, BUT THIS MODEL OFTEN OVERDOES RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WITH THE WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT,
MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST SHOULD KEEP FROST MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE CURRENT AREA
COVERED BY HEADLINES.
DISCUSSION (THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
A RELATIVELY CHILLY START TO THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NW FLOW
ALOFT. TONIGHT WILL AGAIN SEE LOWS IN THE 30S AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FROST OVER MOST
OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK WILL SEE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN AS SOME
WAVES MOVE THROUGH AND THEN A COLD FRONT TUESDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE
RAIN, WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN, MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATE MONDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER AS COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD HELP INCREASE
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN COME AS THE FRONT ITSELF GETS CLOSER
AND APPROACHES FROM THE NW, SO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TUESDAY. RAIN COULD CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. AROUND HALF
AN INCH, POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH IN SOME SPOTS, IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AGAIN SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 40S BUT THE POTENTIAL TO DIP INTO THE 30S
CAN'T YET BE RULED OUT.
AN UPPER WAVE LATE WEEK WILL AGAIN LEAD TO SLIGHT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
IMPACTS:
- VFR THIS TAF PERIOD
DISCUSSION:
GOES19 SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN IN. THIS
HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY, BUT CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CONTROL
OF INDIANA/S WEATHER. MODELS SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL AC
THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE ARRIVAL OF VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE CLOUDS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A MENTION AT THIS POINT.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ030-031-
037>042-046>049-054>057-062>065-070>072.
UPDATE...WHITE
AVIATION...PUMA
DISCUSSION...KF
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