843
FXUS63 KIND 040457
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1257 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTH. WARMER.
- MILDER BUT STILL LARGELY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN; HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
- MARGINAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LATE MONDAY.
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA.
GOES SIMPLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEAR DEPICTS A MID LEVEL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN INDIANA NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
DES MOINES, IA AND SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD. ALOFT, A WEAK 70KT JET
STREAK IS APPROACHING FROM THE WNW PROVIDING SUBTLE LIFT FOR STORM
FORMATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AN INCREASING 30-35 KT WEST-SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD IS BRINGING MODEST MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHILE ALSO INCREASING LOW AND MID
LEVEL WIND SHEAR. BETTER DYNAMICS ARE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND POINTS WEST WHERE STEEPER MID AND UPPER LAPSE RATES AND
MUCAPE OF 500 J/KG HAVE HELPED CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. AS STORMS MOVE ESE ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO SW
AND WESTERN INDIANA, THEY WILL LIKELY BE IN A WEAKENING PHASE AS THE
AIRMASS LOCALLY IS MORE STABLE WITH WEAKER LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND
LITTLE TO NO CAPE. CAMS DO SHOW BETTER DYNAMICS ADVECTING IN THROUGH
THE NIGHT, SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUED SHOWER AND STORM THREAT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR SOUTHERN AND SW INDIANA. DUE TO VERY
MARGINAL DYNAMICS, NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER, WITH SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
ALOFT, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL OUT
OF THE STRONGEST CELLS. LOCALLY, THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND SULLIVAN, KNOX, DAVIESS, AND MARTIN
COUNTIES.
THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK NORTHWARD TOMORROW AS A WARM
FRONT, SHIFTING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
DISCUSSION (THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
RAIN IS ONGOING ACROSS OUR NORTH WITH SW FLOW BRINGING GUSTS OF 25-
30 MPH AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS. A LARGER UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE APPROACHING THE AREA WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEARING
LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW. POPS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
LIFT AND MOISTURE INCREASE, WITH BEST CHANCES TOMORROW NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS TUESDAY DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE AND ONLY MODEST SHEAR AND
BUOYANCY. HOWEVER, LARGE SCALE FORCING MAY INCREASE ENOUGH DURING
THAT TIME FRAME TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LUCKILY
AS WE GET TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY, THAT THREAT WILL DIMINISH
WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TAKING OVER. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
WILL INCREASE AS TUESDAY GOES ON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT, AND WITH IT THE RAIN, SHOULD EXIT TO THE SE BY WEDNESDAY.
FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN ON THE BACK END OF THIS SYSTEM,
ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS. THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING HALF AN INCH TO
AN INCH IS EXPECTED, BUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR MORE IS NOT OUT OF
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS ADVANCING THE ADDITIONAL FORCING TUESDAY NIGHT
QUICKLY EASTWARD, WITH QPF ON WEDNESDAY TRENDING DOWNWARD.
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH DEEP CLOUD COVER AND
CONSISTENT TROUGHING ALOFT; EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. FROSTY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING JUST BELOW FREEZING. THAT
SAID, THIS WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON IF CLEARING WILL OCCUR AS SURFACE
PRESSURE INCREASES.
TO END THE WEEK, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH SLIDES WESTWARD AND THE DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN-
HALF OF CANADA BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE
A MORE CONSISTENT PATTERN OF NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH BRIEF
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES ALONG QUICKLY PASSING SHORTWAVES. TIMING OF
THESE WAVES IS STILL WIDELY VARIED AMONGST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH, TELECONNECTION PATTERNS ARE
HINTING AT A WEAKENING OF THE NAO OF WHICH SHOULD AID IN PROGRESSION
OF THE TROUGHING TO THE NORTH AND A RETURN TO SW FLOW, RESULTING IN
A STRETCH OF WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
IMPACTS:
- MAINLY VFR; BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS OR STORMS AFTER 18Z.
DISCUSSION:
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT, CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE TAF SITES, BUT
ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW CHANGES, MORE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
ARRIVE ALOFT ON WESTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FAVORABLE COLUMN FOR CONVECTION WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR PRECISE TIMING, THUS A LARGE VCTS/VCSH
WINDOW WAS USED. ANY TSRA THAT STRIKES A TAF SITE COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CM
AVIATION...PUMA
DISCUSSION...KF/UPDIKE
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