059
FXUS63 KIND 190207
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1007 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT
- HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING AND
AGAIN TUESDAY
- HIGHS IN THE 80S TUESDAY
- STORMS WILL END WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH, BUT UNSETTLED
WEATHER LIKELY RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
EXPECT MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE WHICH
BROUGHT ACTIVE WEATHER TO CENTRAL IN EARLIER TODAY CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST. CURRENT KIND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL IN WHICH SHOULD MOVE
OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY. SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED
WILL HELP LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DESPITE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.
AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS WATER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RECEDE. DO
NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.
DISCUSSION (THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE SITUATION.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH FASTER
MOVEMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. TO THE SOUTH, THE COLD
POOL IS HAVING A HARDER TIME MOVING SOUTH, AND SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES UPON IT.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, SOME ADDITIONAL UPPER
ENERGY WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH POPS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE REGENERATION OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
COLD POOL BOUNDARY.
THIS REGENERATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING, SO WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH. MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
LOCATION OF THE WATCH IF THE AREA OF REGENERATION SHIFTS.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF THE INITIAL LINE OF
STORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
MOST FORCING EXITS. HOWEVER, SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY MAY KEEP THE
THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AROUND NORTHWEST.
WENT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS GIVEN THE RAIN COOLED AIR.
TUESDAY...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY WITH
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING IN. THERE MAY BE CLOUD COVER IN THE
MORNING FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WHICH WOULD HELP LIMIT INSTABILITY.
SOME CAMS LIMIT COVERAGE TO THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA, WHILE
LARGER SCALE MODELS BRING RAIN TO ALL AREAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE, WENT
LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS AT SOME POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW WELL THE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO
BUILD. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. GIVEN
TODAY'S RAINFALL AND THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE TUESDAY, HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR TUESDAY AS WELL.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY COULD REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S IF MORNING
CLOUDS ARE THIN ENOUGH AND RAIN HOLDS OFF LONG ENOUGH.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
SOME RAIN MAY LINGER WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTH, SO KEPT SOME
LOW POPS THERE. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT WILL THEN SETTLE AND THUS HOW FAST IT RETURNS NORTH. GFS SEEMS
AGGRESSIVE WITH RETURNING RAIN ON THURSDAY, SO WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO SPREAD
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL RETURN FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70 AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
FRIDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...
A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL USA WHILE
A SOUTHERN STREAM SMALLER UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THESE WILL
HELP BRING THE SURFACE FRONT NORTHWARD BACK INTO THE AREA INTO
SATURDAY. DECENT MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK NORTH WITH IT, SO WILL HAVE
LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPPER ENERGY MAY INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING FRONT TO PRODUCE SOME
RAIN ON SATURDAY, SO WILL KEEP POPS AROUND.
A COUPLE OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. THERE REMAINS SOME DECENT UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH, SO WILL BROADBRUSH POPS AND KEEP THEM UNDER THE LIKELY
CATEGORY UNTIL UNCERTAINTY IMPROVES.
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT HAVING LIFTED NORTH, WARMER AIR WILL RETURN,
WITH PERHAPS 80S AGAIN BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH IN THESE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
RAIN COVERAGE SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
IMPACTS:
- SHOWERS AT TIMES INTO TONIGHT
- PEAK WIND GUSTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 25 TO 30KTS
- SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DISCUSSION:
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. HOWEVER, LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT TO
SOME EXTENT THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS A BIT HIGHER THAN USUAL SINCE THIS ACTIVITY IS DUE TO
STORMS CURRENTLY FAR TO OUR WEST OVER KANSAS. HOW THEY EVOLVE WILL
DETERMINE TIMING AND LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN TOMORROW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH MARGINAL LLWS POSSIBLE (30-35KT).
SHEAR DECREASES AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE
SW PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 10-20KT GUSTING 25-30KT AT TIMES.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ043>047-051>055-
060>063-067.
UPDATE...MELO
AVIATION...ECKHOFF
DISCUSSION...50
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