338
FXUS63 KIND 191736
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
136 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS
- COOLER MID WEEK WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 950 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH SIGNS
OF A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT.
THICKER OVERCAST SKIES ARE FOUND TO THE WEST OF THIS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY, SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF EFFICIENT SOLAR INSOLATION THIS MORNING BEFORE
THESE CLOUDS ARRIVE. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS THE
CLEARING WELL ALSO DEPICTS RAPID DESTABILIZATION (TO BETWEEN 1500-
2500 J/KG MLCAPE) THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS SUCH, RENEWED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
IN TERMS OF HAZARDS, RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SOME MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR MAY BE PRESENT TODAY. SHEAR IS MODEST, UNDER 25 KNOTS ON
AVERAGE. HOWEVER, STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000
J/KG COULD LEAD TO DOWNBURSTS AND EFFICIENT COLD POOL PRODUCTION. THE
25 KNOTS OF SHEAR MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR LOOSE ORGANIZATION
INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THEREFORE, STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS TODAY.
THE WIND THREAT DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND
LAPSE RATES WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMING MORE EFFICIENT FOR RAINFALL PRODUCTION OVERNIGHT (DEEP WARM
CLOUD LAYER, SATURATION TO THE EL, AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES).
A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA WILL INTERACT WITH AN MCV
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST, PROLONGING LARGE-SCALE LIFT TONIGHT.
MOST GUIDANCE IS ON BOARD WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
ON AND OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
WITHIN MOST GUIDANCE WITH POCKETS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA. QPF COVERAGE IN GUIDANCE ISN'T AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY, BUT THESE POCKETS TEND TO LINE UP WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN FELL. ADDITIONAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT -
QUIET BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING NORTHERN EXTENT OF A LINE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MAY
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN SPOTS, THOUGH SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WHEN
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST TO PROMOTE
ORGANIZATION OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON, AND AT LEAST A
LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT, PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY WIND, WILL EXIST. THIS
THREAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WHEN THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH.
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS, PARTICULARLY GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR THE TOP END OF CLIMATOLOGY AND WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
YESTERDAY OF 1.5 TO 3+ INCHES, WILL BE AT LEAST AN EQUAL CONCERN TO
THE SEVERE THREAT, WITH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES AS LOW AS THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN ONE HOUR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HREF
PROBABILITY MATCHED MEANS INDICATE AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF REACHING
THESE AMOUNTS IN A FEW AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT, THOUGH PERHAPS NOT
QUITE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY -
ONCE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA, IT WILL STALL OUT A
BIT, THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS
WAKE WILL KEEP IT SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND ALLOW FOR BOTH A BRIEF
COOLDOWN AND A BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AND PULLS
A WARMER AND MOIST AIRMASS BACK INTO THE AREA, THOUGH CHANCES WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY WILL BE LOW FOR THE TIME BEING GIVEN
SIGNIFICANT MODEL INCONSISTENCIES AND RESULTING UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
IMPACTS:
- WIND GUSTS TODAY 25-30KT
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
- SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY
- MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, IFR POSSIBLE
DISCUSSION:
WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING TO BETWEEN 15-25KT WITH GUSTS
OF 25-30KT LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY, GENERALLY FROM 210-230 DEGREES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL VEER TO WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD,
WITH GUSTS ENDING IN TYPICAL DIURNAL FASHION THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS POST FRONTAL WILL LIKELY DROP INTO MVFR. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE, BUT LESS LIKELY. THE PLACEMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
WILL INFLUENCE IF/WHERE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWS. THESE WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE SO A VCSH GROUP WAS CARRIED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ052>055-060>064-
067>072.
UPDATE...ECKHOFF
AVIATION...ECKHOFF
DISCUSSION...NIELD
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