326
FXUS63 KIND 191900
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
300 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3PM TODAY TO 2PM WEDNESDAY.
- COOLER MID WEEK WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND
DISCUSSION (THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT -
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOMES DESTABILIZED (IND ACARS SHOWS AROUND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE). AS
SUCH, RENEWED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. IN FACT, A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY POPPED UP NEAR
COLUMBUS AS OF 2PM.
IN TERMS OF HAZARDS, RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SOME MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR MAY BE PRESENT TODAY. ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM IND SHOW THE DRY AIR
AND DCAPE VALUES OF 1100 J/KG AS OF 2PM. THIS, COMBINED WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND A LLJ AROUND 30-40KT, COULD ALLOW FOR DOWNBURST AND
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. ABOUT 25 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR LOOSE ORGANIZATION INTO
MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THEREFORE, STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH STORMS TODAY.
THE WIND THREAT DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND
LAPSE RATES WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMING MORE EFFICIENT FOR RAINFALL PRODUCTION OVERNIGHT (DEEP WARM
CLOUD LAYER, SATURATION TO THE EL, AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES).
A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA WILL INTERACT WITH AN MCV
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST, PROLONGING LARGE-SCALE LIFT TONIGHT.
MOST GUIDANCE IS ON BOARD WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
ON AND OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
WITHIN MOST GUIDANCE WITH POCKETS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA. QPF COVERAGE IN GUIDANCE ISN'T AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY, BUT THESE POCKETS TEND TO LINE UP WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN FELL. ADDITIONAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY -
ONCE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA, IT WILL STALL OUT A
BIT, THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS
WAKE WILL KEEP IT SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND ALLOW FOR BOTH A BRIEF
COOLDOWN AND A BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AND PULLS
A WARMER AND MOIST AIRMASS BACK INTO THE AREA, THOUGH CHANCES WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY WILL BE LOW FOR THE TIME BEING GIVEN
SIGNIFICANT MODEL INCONSISTENCIES AND RESULTING UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
IMPACTS:
- WIND GUSTS TODAY 25-30KT
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
- SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY
- MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, IFR POSSIBLE
DISCUSSION:
WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING TO BETWEEN 15-25KT WITH GUSTS
OF 25-30KT LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY, GENERALLY FROM 210-230 DEGREES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL VEER TO WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD,
WITH GUSTS ENDING IN TYPICAL DIURNAL FASHION THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS POST FRONTAL WILL LIKELY DROP INTO MVFR. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE, BUT LESS LIKELY. THE PLACEMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
WILL INFLUENCE IF/WHERE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWS. THESE WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE SO A VCSH GROUP WAS CARRIED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ052>055-060>064-
067>072.
AVIATION...ECKHOFF
DISCUSSION...NIELD/ECKHOFF
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