407
FXUS63 KIND 201046
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
646 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2PM TODAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA
- COOLER MID WEEK WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
TODAY -
PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT SLOWED SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THIS EVENING,
BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY. UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA, AND MAINLY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RAPIDLY TAPER OFF ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH GIVEN THIS
EXPECTATION AND CONTINUED PLENTIFUL DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH MIDDAY.
RELATIVELY MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY -
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING AS A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PULL A WARMER AND
MOIST AIRMASS BACK INTO THE REGION. MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY HIGH
ON WHAT MAY END UP BEING A WASHOUT ON FRIDAY, THOUGH DISCREPANCIES
INCREASE QUITE A BIT BEYOND THEN. BLEND POPS HAVE INCREASED IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, THOUGH THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AT ANY ONE TIME, AND CHANGES ARE LIKELY IN
THE COMING DAYS. NONETHELESS, RAIN CHANCES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CHARACTERIZE THE COMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
IMPACTS:
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY FROM HUF/IND
SOUTHEASTWARD
- WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF IFR AT BMG
DISCUSSION:
A FRONT HAS SLOWLY MOVED JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT BUT
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA, AND WILL DO SO MUCH OF TODAY. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BUT IS TOO LOW PROBABILITY FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF.
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS
WITH SOME IFR IN FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MOST SITES WILL
REMAIN MVFR AT WORST BUT PERIODS OF IFR ARE LIKELY AT BMG.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD, BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. A GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT, MAINLY AT LAF, BUT IS LIKELY TO BE TOO SPORADIC FOR INCLUSION.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ052>055-060>064-
067>072.
AVIATION...NIELD
DISCUSSION...NIELD
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