965
FXUS63 KIND 210459
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA.
- COOLER MID WEEK WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 907 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS A STALLED WARM FRONT ACROSS KY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WAS
RESULTING IN A COOL EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS INDIANA. DEW POINTS
REMAINED IN THE 50S. ALOFT A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS
STREAMING FROM THE GULF INTO THE OH VALLEY AND THEN TO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. SHOWERS FROM THIS PLUME CONTINUE TO IMPACT SE
CENTRAL INDIANA, BUT THESE WERE SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST AND
EXITING THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT, THE PLUME OF MOISTURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST, EXITING THE AREA. HOWEVER
WITH THE COOL EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IN PLACE AND THE LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS KY, LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY
NIGHT. DEW POINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE MID TO LOWER 50S. THUS WITH THE
CLOUDS EXPECTED AND THE COOL AIR MASS, LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S WILL BE
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION (THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES HAS PLACED
INDIANA WITHIN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SUBTLE MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES HAVE BEEN EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW. ADDITIONALLY, A
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT HAS BEEN CROSSING INDIANA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVER THE PAST DAY. ALL THESE FACTORS COMBINED HAS LEAD TO PROLONGED
RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
RAINFALL CONTINUES FOR MOST AS OF THIS WRITING, WITH SOME HEAVIER
POCKETS NOTED SOUTH OF THE INDY METRO. RAINFALL TOTALS OVERNIGHT
WERE IMPRESSIVE IN SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
FOR INSTANCE, A POCKET OF 3-5 INCHES WAS OBSERVED IN THE KNOX,
DAVIESS, MARTIN, AND GREENE COUNTY AREA. THIS HAS LEAD TO FLOODING
ALONG MAIN STEM RIVERS AND SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS. ADDITIONALLY,
MINOR OVERLAND FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT TIMES.
MOST HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS SHOWERS LINGERING AT LEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY TO AS LATE AS 8PM. AFTER THAT,
THE FRONT EXITS TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN TO OUR NORTH. A CHILLY NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE DEVELOPS AND A PERIOD
OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED TO END THE WEEK.
TROUGHING PERSISTS TO OUR WEST, HOWEVER, SO THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW QUICKLY
REESTABLISHES ITSELF BY FRIDAY, WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
A ROUND OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS INDIANA LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRINGING ON AND OFF AGAIN RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY,
SUNDAY, MONDAY AND ONWARD. THESE DISTURBANCES ARE HARD TO TIME,
SINCE THEY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE PROCESSES UPSTREAM THAT CANNOT BE
RESOLVED BY MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE. AS SUCH, WE WILL KEEP CONTINUOUS
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK...CAPPING THEM AT CHANCE
SINCE THE SIGNAL IS MODEST AT BEST.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
IMPACTS:
- PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
MVFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY AT BMG
- ENE WINDS AS MUCH AS 10-15KT WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE
DISCUSSION:
AN INVERSION ALOFT NORTH OF A STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTHEAST IS
TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PROMOTING WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS
THE AREA. AT LEAST PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
SITES, WITH MVFR LIKELY TO PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT BMG. ALL
SITES SHOULD SEE PREVAILING VFR BY THIS EVENING IF THEY HAVE NOT
ALREADY BY THAT TIME.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST (050-080 DEGREES)
AS HIGH AS 10-15KT AT TIMES. LAF MAY SEE GUSTS TO 20KT DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS, AND OTHER SITES COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO MERIT INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD
DISCUSSION...ECKHOFF
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