749
FXUS63 KIND 211904
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
304 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA.
- COOLER TODAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND, ALONG WITH A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION (THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES STRETCHING DOWN INTO PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE A SUBTLE WAVE MOVES ACROSS OHIO. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES HAVE LINGERED PRIMARILY NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH DUE
TO WEAKER SUBSIDENCE BEING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE SURFACE HIGH. SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE OCCURRING THOUGH THANKS TO DAYTIME HEATING
DESPITE THE WEAKER SUBSIDENCE. LOOK FOR QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH.
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICTS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTING A
WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY LEADING TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
RESIDUAL SUBSIDENCE INDUCED DRY AIR WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO
MAINLY SOUTH-CENTRAL IN FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD
SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN HALF
OF CENTRAL IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF DUE TO THE DRY
AIR. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH FORCING FROM THE DEPARTING FIRST
IMPULSE AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING IN SATURDAY WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ELEVATED. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
SATURDAY ARE FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THE
STRONGEST FORCING IS EXPECTED. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE WEAK AGAIN
ON SATURDAY, BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
LOOK FOR SUBTLE RIDGING TO BUILD IN LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT PROVIDING QUIET WEATHER BEFORE YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN
ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY QUIET AS RIDGING
SHIFTS EASTWARD. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
THEN MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON SUPPORTING INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
RELATIVELY WEAK SYSTEM LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTS
MODEST FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION PROMOTING SCATTERED CONVECTION
AS THE PBL HEATS UP AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS
MULTIPLE IMPULSES ALOFT TRAVERSING THE REGION WHILE GULF MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ADVECT NORTHWARD. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOW 80S BY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
IMPACTS:
- MVFR CEILINGS AT BMG THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE AT HUF
- ENE WINDS AS MUCH AS 10-15KT WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH 20Z
- MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY DEVELOPING FRIDAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AT
THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD, EMBEDDED STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
DISCUSSION:
AN INVERSION ALOFT NORTH OF A STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTHEAST IS
TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PROMOTING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA. MVFR WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY AT BMG, WITH PERIODS
POSSIBLE AT HUF. ALL SITES SHOULD SEE PREVAILING VFR BY THIS EVENING
IF THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY BY THAT TIME.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST (040-080 DEGREES)
AS HIGH AS 10-15KT AT TIMES. LAF/IND MAY SEE GUSTS BETWEEN 18-23KT
THROUGH ABOUT 20Z BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP FRIDAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED AT THE VERY END
OF THE PERIOD. EMBEDDED STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY NEAR BMG.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AVIATION...MELO
DISCUSSION...MELO
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