226
FXUS63 KIND 220134
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
934 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA.
- COOLER TODAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND, ALONG WITH A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES.
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 933 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
GOES19 THIS EVENING SHOWS STRATOCU ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA, WHICH HAS
OVERSPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS COOLING HAS BEEN LOST. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WHILE LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX. THIS COMBINATION WAS RESULTING IN A
COOL, EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
OVERNIGHT, WARM AIR ADVECTION AND OVERRUNNING IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA, AND START TO PUSH TOWARD OUR STATE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED LOWER LEVEL CLOUD COVER, AND SET THE STAGE
FOR THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THUS, OVERALL A CLOUDY NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LOWS FALLING MAINLY TO
THE MIDDLE 50S. OVERALL, ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
DISCUSSION (THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES STRETCHING DOWN INTO PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE A SUBTLE WAVE MOVES ACROSS OHIO. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES HAVE LINGERED PRIMARILY NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH DUE
TO WEAKER SUBSIDENCE BEING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE SURFACE HIGH. SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE OCCURRING THOUGH THANKS TO DAYTIME HEATING
DESPITE THE WEAKER SUBSIDENCE. LOOK FOR QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH.
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICTS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTING A
WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY LEADING TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
RESIDUAL SUBSIDENCE INDUCED DRY AIR WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO
MAINLY SOUTH-CENTRAL IN FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD
SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN HALF
OF CENTRAL IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF DUE TO THE DRY
AIR. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH FORCING FROM THE DEPARTING FIRST
IMPULSE AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING IN SATURDAY WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ELEVATED. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
SATURDAY ARE FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THE
STRONGEST FORCING IS EXPECTED. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE WEAK AGAIN
ON SATURDAY, BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
LOOK FOR SUBTLE RIDGING TO BUILD IN LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT PROVIDING QUIET WEATHER BEFORE YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN
ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY QUIET AS RIDGING
SHIFTS EASTWARD. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
THEN MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON SUPPORTING INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
RELATIVELY WEAK SYSTEM LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTS
MODEST FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION PROMOTING SCATTERED CONVECTION
AS THE PBL HEATS UP AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS
MULTIPLE IMPULSES ALOFT TRAVERSING THE REGION WHILE GULF MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ADVECT NORTHWARD. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOW 80S BY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 542 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
IMPACTS:
- MAINLY LOW VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
- MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY DEVELOPING FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AFT 18-19Z.
DISCUSSION:
GOES19 SHOWS STRATOCU OVER IL, WESTERN IN AND SOUTHERN INDIANA.
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IN PLACE WAS TRYING TO DECAY THESE CLOUDS.
HOWEVER AS COOLING CONTINUES THIS EVENING, A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE SOUTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHTS KEEP MAINLY LOW VFR OR MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AS THIS OCCURS.
LOW PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS TO
MOST OF THE TAF SITES. HRRR REMAINS ON BOARD WITH THIS, SHOWING A
SHIELD OF RAIN ARRIVING ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING LATE
FRIDAY EVENING.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...PUMA
AVIATION...PUMA
DISCUSSION...MELO
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