627
FXUS63 KIND 250144
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
944 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON, A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
- DRY WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD. BEST
CHANCES FOR DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY.
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 944 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL INDIANA
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND MID MS
VALLEY. NORTH WINDS 5-10 MPH WILL BECOME LIGHT N-NE OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES, RECENT RAIN/MOIST SOIL AND LIGHT WINDS
SPELL A RECIPE FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND ONLY 8-
8.5 HRS OF DARKNESS AND MODEST WINDS PRESENTLY, NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD FOG CONDITIONS. SO HAVE ADDED THE WORD PATCHY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE EXPECTED AREAL COVERAGE, FAVORING RURAL AREAS AND LOW
SPOTS/RIVER VALLEYS WHERE CROSS-OVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED SOONEST
(AFTER 05Z). OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS PRECIP HAS
EXISTED THE CWA.
DISCUSSION (THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER MO AND WESTERN IL, BUILDING EASTWARD. ALOFT, AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WAS FOUND OVER WI AND IL, PUSHING EAST TOWARD INDIANA. RADAR
SHOWS TWO AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. THE
FIRST WAS PUSHING ACROSS SE CENTRAL INDIANA. THE SECOND AREA WAS
FOUND ENTERING WESTERN INDIANA AND WAS LINEAR IN FASHION, WITH
DAYTIME HEATING LEADING TO SOME CONVECTION NEAR THIS BOUNDARY.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY MOVE
ACROSS INDIANA, EXITING THE STATE NEAR 00Z. THE ONGOING RAIN AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS MOST AREAS, RESULTING IN AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS OR A TSRA THROUGH 00Z. DRY WEATHER WILL
ARRIVE AFTER 00Z IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS FORCING IS LOST.
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER FLOW HAS WEAK RIDGING AVAILABLE AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES PROMPTLY AFTER 00Z. STRONG DRYING IS SEEN WITHIN
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THUS A TREND TOWARD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS
EXPECTED. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL AIR MASS, LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MID 50S.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS SHOW THE STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OUR STATE THOUGH MONDAY, ARRIVING OVER
NY AND PA BY MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
A DRY COLUMN WITH ONGOING SUBSIDENCE AS A STRONG RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
WITHIN THE UPPER LEVELS. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES APPEAR UNREACHABLE
AS A MID LEVEL INVERSION WILL BE PRESENT. THUS A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WILL BE EXPECTED. A DAY OF FULL SUN SHOULD
ALLOW US TO REACH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST, WITH A NW TILT TO WESTERN CANADA. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER
OK AND AR WILL PROVIDE SOUTHERLY GULF FLOW ACROSS INDIANA. MODELS
SUGGEST SOME FORCING DYNAMICS WITHIN THAT FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS
INDIANA ON LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED ON THOSE DAYS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
DRY WEATHER WILL BE EXPECTED FOR NOW ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH STRONG RIDGING
ALOFT ON THOSE DAYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER
ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
SMALLER RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE EAST WHILE A WARM FRONT AND AND UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES
TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO SIGNAL FOR HIGH
CONFIDENCE POPS, ENOUGH INGREDIENTS REMAIN WHERE PRECIPITATION
CANNOT BE RULED OUT YET.
AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
IMPACTS:
- AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VIS AND CEILINGS IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER
06Z LASTING UNTIL 12Z.
DISCUSSION:
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS FAR SE PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF 00Z. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WINDS WERE LESS THAN
10 KTS OUT OF THE N-NW. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S-SE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER-MID MS VALLEY, SURFACE WINDS WILL
BECOME LESS THAN 5 KTS AND SWITCH TO THE N-NE OVERNIGHT. BANDS OF
LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT THROUGH LATE EVENING AS DRIER AIR /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/
WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE TAF SITES.
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS (AND RECENT RAIN/MOIST SOIL),
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS IS PRESENTLY AT KLAF AND KBMG,
WHERE TERRAIN EFFECTS COMBINE WITH AIRPORT LOCATION TO SUPPORT COLD
AIR DRAINAGE TO BE MAXIMIZED. ALTHOUGH DENSE FOG IS A RARITY IN LATE
MAY, THE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE MODERATELY HIGH FOR KLAF WHERE
SKIES WILL BE CLEAREST FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND WHERE WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN UP EARLIEST. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR LIFR
VIS/CIG LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE WIND DIRECTION OUT OF THE N-NE AT
KIND AND KHUF, NOT EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP, HOWEVER MVFR
VIS AND A BROKEN MVFR CEILING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO/DEVELOP
AFTER 09Z. IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VIS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY
AROUND 12Z, THANKS TO THE EARLY SUNRISE (1030Z), HIGH SUN ANGLES
AND A RELATIVELY THIN CLOUD LAYER (AROUND 1KFT).
IN THE WAKE OF THESE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS, LOW CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY
BECOME VFR AND SCATTER OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME E-NE WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 16 KTS BY AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL MIXING BECOMES MAXIMIZED. A HIGH CIRRUS CLOUD DECK WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CROSBIE
AVIATION...CROSBIE
DISCUSSION...PUMA
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