331
FXUS63 KIND 251609
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1209 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY
- RAIN CHANCES PEAK WEDNESDAY, WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 924 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE OVER INDIANA, IL AND
SOUTHERN MI THIS MORNING. SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE, WHILE HIGH CLOUDS WERE INVADING FROM THE SOUTH. THESE
HIGH CLOUDS WERE PART OF A MOISTURE PLUME AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR.
THIS PLUME STARTED IN THE GULF AND WAS STREAMING NORTH THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY. DEWPOINTS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WERE
IN THE 50S.
ONGOING FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE STRONG HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY, BUT CONTINUE TO KEEP CONTROL OVER OUR
WEATHER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN WITH
UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THUS A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH DUE TO THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE. HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH AROUND 80.
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING...
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO CONTINUE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY HELP LIMIT COVERAGE THERE A BIT.
FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE, ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED LOW AREAS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
FOG WILL MIX OUT EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SOME OF THE MOISTURE MAY LEAD
TO A FEW CUMULUS, BUT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN SKY COVER
TODAY, MAKING SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET, AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING DOWN SOME
DRIER AIR. LOWERED GUIDANCE'S AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SOME TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.
WITH THE SUNSHINE AND DRYING AIR, TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AROUND 80
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES TONIGHT,
AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY NORTH WILL INTERACT WITH THE OLD
SURFACE FRONT TO THE SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD. FORCING FROM THESE
FEATURES WILL GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, FORCING WILL BE WEAKER AND CONFINED TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. WILL GO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THEN.
BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA, MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL GO MAINLY LIKELY
CATEGORY POPS DURING THAT PERIOD SOUTH, WITH LOWER POPS NORTH.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS IN THE NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY AS THERE IS
SOME INDICATION THAT A SYSTEM TO THE NORTH MAY KEEP FORCING FROM THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM FROM GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WITH SPECIFICS
DEPENDING ON SKY COVER AND COVERAGE OF RAIN.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA IN THIS PERIOD, WITH
A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN USA. THIS WOULD
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA AS MOISTURE
IS PUSHED SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...
UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN USA MAY
EXTEND INTO THE AREA BRINGING LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN, OR IT MAY REMAIN
EAST AND THE AREA WOULD REMAIN DRY. WILL HAVE SOME POPS AROUND WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
DEPENDING ON HOW THE PATTERN DEVELOPS.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
IMPACTS:
- VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.
DISCUSSION:
LARGE AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ACROSS INDIANA TO IL WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER DURING THIS TAF
PERIOD, PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. A PLUME OF HIGH CLOUDS WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVELS WILL BRING SOME SCT-BKN CI ACROSS THE AREA, BUT ANY
CIGS WILL BE HIGH VFR.
SOME DIURNAL FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE
LOW. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES NEAR THE DIURNAL MINIMUM.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...PUMA
AVIATION...PUMA
DISCUSSION...50
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