479
FXUS63 KIND 260537
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
137 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 953 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. WE DID
INCREASE SKY COVER SLIGHTLY SINCE GUIDANCE WAS A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC
REGARDING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. CIRRUS HAS BEEN SPREADING
NORTHWARD GRADUALLY TODAY AND IS NOW MOSTLY OVERCAST. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. EVENTUALLY,
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN, LOWER, AND THEN GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
DISCUSSION (THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE AND BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE STRETCHING FROM WESTERN NY ACROSS INDIANA TO IL.
ALOFT, WATER VAPOR SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
ROCKIES. AN UPPER LOW WAS FOUND UNDER THIS RIDGE OVER TX. AHEAD OF
THE LOW, A TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE WAS FLOWING NORTH ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. GOES19 MAINLY SHOWS HIGH CI CLOUDS
ACROSS INDIANA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
TONIGHT...
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
OVERNIGHT AS IT DRIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
DRY AMID DRY EASTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW. ALOFT, THE UPPER LOW OVER TX
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE
CONTINUED FLOW OF HIGH CLOUD AND MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
TO ARRIVE OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. COVERAGE WILL BE
THICKEST ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT ALL IN ALL,
THIS WILL JUST BE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER, LOWS
SHOULD REACH THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL PERSIST STARTING ON LATE TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY,
AS INDIANA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEPARTING EAST. ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUD WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE DRY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO HELP KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS DRY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A DRY COLUMN THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CAP IN PLACE AND MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. THUS WILL AIM FOR A DRY DAY ON TUESDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BEGIN TO
TREND TOWARD SATURATION, BUT DO NOT APPEAR TO GET THERE. PWATS DO
GET RATHER HIGH, OVER 1.5 INCHES, FORCING DOES APPEAR TO ARRIVE AS
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TROUGH
ACROSS INDIANA. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW IS ALSO SHOWN TO
DEVELOP. OVERALL, MODERATE MOISTURE ALONG MODERATE FORCING WILL
REQUIRE AT LEAST SOME POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THEES FEATURES PASS. PRECIP AMOUNT SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE,
AS LOWER LEVEL GULF MOISTURE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE PRESENT.
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW IS KICKED EAST BY A THE DEVELOPING NW FLOW
ALOFT.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND SHOULD REACH AROUND 80S AND REACH THE LOWER 80S
ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY DRY WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER PATTERN ON THURSDAY OVER THE CONUS
LOOKS TO DEVELOP INTO A LARGE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN, WITH STRONG,
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING STRETCHING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH, THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THE FIRST UPPER LOW
LOOKS TO BE FOUND OVER NV AND CA, WHILE THE OTHER UPPER LOW RESIDES
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL, NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
INDIANA, ALL THE WHILE PLACING OUR LOCATION IN A POSITION OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. THIS RESULTS IN A STRONG SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP OVER
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALLOWING COOL,
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA.
MODELS KEEP THIS PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AS OMEGA BLOCKS CAN
BE DIFFICULT TO BREAK DOWN. THUS A FORECAST FOR DRY WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE WAY TO GO
FOR NOW.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
IMPACTS:
- LOW CHANCE FOG AT LAF AND BMG FROM 09-13Z TODAY.
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
DISCUSSION:
CONFIDENCE IN OVERNIGHT FOG HAS DECREASED DUE TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AND HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED RECENTLY. A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES
NEAR LAF/BMG REMAINS, BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED
TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO A GENERALLY EASTERLY WIND THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS MAY BEGIN TO BACK LATE TODAY ONCE A WEAK
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTH.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH. THUNDER CHANCES APPEAR LOW AS OF RIGHT
NOW, UNDER 15 PERCENT. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE AT IND, AND BMG AT
THIS TIME. RAIN SHOWERS MAY NOT MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO REACH
LAF BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY ALSO REMAINS ON FAR
WEST RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL IN TO IMPACT HUF.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ECKHOFF
AVIATION...MELO
DISCUSSION...PUMA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page