082
FXUS63 KIND 260709
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
309 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TODAY WHILE A WAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW
LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY
MOIST AIRMASS SURGING NORTHWARD SUPPORTS INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSIDENCE INDUCED DRY AIR
WILL DELAY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION INITIALLY, ESPECIALLY WITH
NORTHWARD EXTENT.
RAIN CHANCES ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL IN BEFORE SUNSET
THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES THEN SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE SURGES NORTH. GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
DISTURBANCE STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL IN LATE TONIGHT BEFORE A MORE
ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENTUALLY PUSHES IT SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HEATING
ATOP THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST PBL FAVORS ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR, BUT A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A DEEP WARM CLOUD
LAYER, PWATS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR CLIMATOLOGY, AND LONG
SKINNY MODEST CAPE PROFILES WHICH SUGGEST EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES
ARE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. THIS ALONG WITH
RELATIVELY SLOW STORMS MOTIONS AS THE DISTURBANCE OR ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY STALLS AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. LOOK FOR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
LOOK FOR RAIN CHANCES TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN OMEGA
BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPING ALOFT WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CANADA. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
PROMOTE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE STAGNANT MUNDANE WEATHER PATTERN COULD CONTINUE BEYOND DAY
7. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY THURSDAY IN THE LOW 80S WITH HIGHS
THEN HOLDING NEARLY STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
IMPACTS:
- LOW CHANCE FOG AT LAF AND BMG FROM 09-13Z TODAY.
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
DISCUSSION:
CONFIDENCE IN OVERNIGHT FOG HAS DECREASED DUE TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AND HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED RECENTLY. A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES
NEAR LAF/BMG REMAINS, BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED
TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO A GENERALLY EASTERLY WIND THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS MAY BEGIN TO BACK LATE TODAY ONCE A WEAK
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTH.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH. THUNDER CHANCES APPEAR LOW AS OF RIGHT
NOW, UNDER 15 PERCENT. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE AT IND, AND BMG AT
THIS TIME. RAIN SHOWERS MAY NOT MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO REACH
LAF BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY ALSO REMAINS ON FAR
WEST RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL IN TO IMPACT HUF.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AVIATION...MELO
DISCUSSION...MELO
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