277
FXUS63 KIND 261257
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
857 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 854 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
A CHALLENGING FORECAST LIES AHEAD AS A MID LEVEL VORT MAX PUSHES
NORTHWARD, IMPINGING ON A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A DICHOTOMY OF WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
FAR N/NW CENTRAL INDIANA, WITH THE REST OF CENTRAL INDIANA SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH RISING DEW POINTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA, WITH A FEW POCKETS OF SUNSHINE LIKELY
OVER THAT SAME N/NW PORTION OF THE AREA.
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST INCLUDING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER GRADIENT ALONG
THE THRESHOLD OF THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED AIRMASSES AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AS THICKER CLOUD
COVER AND POCKETS OF RAIN MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TODAY WHILE A WAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW
LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY
MOIST AIRMASS SURGING NORTHWARD SUPPORTS INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSIDENCE INDUCED DRY AIR
WILL DELAY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION INITIALLY, ESPECIALLY WITH
NORTHWARD EXTENT.
RAIN CHANCES ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL IN BEFORE SUNSET
THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES THEN SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE SURGES NORTH. GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
DISTURBANCE STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL IN LATE TONIGHT BEFORE A MORE
ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENTUALLY PUSHES IT SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HEATING
ATOP THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST PBL FAVORS ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR, BUT A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A DEEP WARM CLOUD
LAYER, PWATS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR CLIMATOLOGY, AND LONG
SKINNY MODEST CAPE PROFILES WHICH SUGGEST EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES
ARE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. THIS ALONG WITH
RELATIVELY SLOW STORMS MOTIONS AS THE DISTURBANCE OR ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY STALLS AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. LOOK FOR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
LOOK FOR RAIN CHANCES TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN OMEGA
BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPING ALOFT WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CANADA. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
PROMOTE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE STAGNANT MUNDANE WEATHER PATTERN COULD CONTINUE BEYOND DAY
7. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY THURSDAY IN THE LOW 80S WITH HIGHS
THEN HOLDING NEARLY STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 557 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
IMPACTS:
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
LATER TONIGHT
- MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP TONIGHT MOST SITES WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT
KBMG
DISCUSSION:
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE HELPED PREVENT FOG FORMATION, SO WILL NOT MENTION
FOG THIS MORNING IN THIS SET.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING, THEN MVFR CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP SOUTH TO NORTH (KLAF SHOULD REMAIN VFR). IFR CEILINGS
MAY OCCUR AT KBMG AFTER 06Z.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AT KBMG, BUT BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN SPREAD NORTH TONIGHT. THUNDER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW
TO BE MENTIONED BUT ARE NON-ZERO.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...UPDIKE
AVIATION...50
DISCUSSION...MELO
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