543
FXUS63 KIND 270541
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
141 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FORECAST WITH RAIN SHOWERS STILL
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL-SCALE CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 07Z, MAINLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-
70 CORRIDOR FROM MORGAN COUNTY AND POINTS EAST. LATEST CAMS
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR AS MUCH AS 2.00-3.00 INCHES IN UNDER 3
HOURS UNDER LONE MOST-INTENSE CELLS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN
EVEN WIDELY SCATTERED EXTREME RAINFALL...SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
FLOOD WATCH.
OTHERWISE THICKENING STRATUS CEILING WILL CONTINUE TO FALL, HOLDING
DAMP CONDITIONS AMID LIGHT BREEZES. WEAKNESS RESPONSIBLE FOR RAIN
OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS MAY FAIL TO REACH FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z, WITH PERHAPS ONLY SPRINKLES AROUND LAFAYETTE
THROUGH DAWN. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO MIRROR DEWPOINTS, RANGING FROM LOW
60S ALONG THE UPPER WABASH TO MID-60S IN MARION COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
ZONES.
DISCUSSION (THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
A CHALLENGING FORECAST LIES AHEAD AS A MID LEVEL VORT MAX PUSHES
NORTHWARD, IMPINGING ON A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS IS
LEADING TO A DICHOTOMY OF WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS OVER FAR N/NW
CENTRAL INDIANA, AND THE REST OF CENTRAL INDIANA SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
ELEVATED DEW POINTS. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA, WITH
A FEW POCKETS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE OVER THAT SAME N/NW PORTION OF
THE AREA.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS RAIN PUSHING NORTHWARD WITH OUR
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES CURRENTLY BENEATH LIGHT RAIN. THIS AREA OF
RAIN WILL MIX OUT SOME AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE. STILL PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALL THE WAY UP TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.
AFTER 02Z, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BEGIN TO COOL AND BROAD LIFT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD, EVENTUALLY LEADING TO A NARROW ZONE
OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS ZONE IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 50-
100MI WIDE AND PRODUCE CONSISTENT CONVECTIVE CELLS. MODELS STILL
VARY ON WHERE THIS ZONE OF CONVECTION WILL BE LOCATED, RANGING FROM
JUST NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR A LINE FROM BLOOMINGTON TO SEYMOUR.
THOSE WITHIN THIS ZONE WILL LIKELY SEE A BROAD INCHES OF RAIN, WITH
POCKETS OF 2 INCHES DEPENDING ON HOW TRANSIENT THIS LINE PROGRESSES.
AS COLD POOLS DEVELOP SOME OF THE AVAILABLE ENERGY FOR UPDRAFTS WILL
DIMINISH LEADING TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER POPS TOMORROW MORNING.
POPS AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN THE LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON S/E OF INDIANAPOLIS, WITH RAIN AND THUNDER PUSHING
EAST WITH TIME.
THURSDAY ONWARD:
LOOK FOR RAIN CHANCES TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
DEPICTS AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPING ALOFT WITH RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CANADA.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STAGNANT MUNDANE WEATHER PATTERN
COULD CONTINUE BEYOND DAY 7. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY THURSDAY IN
THE LOW 80S WITH TEMPERATURES THEN HOLDING NEARLY STEADY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
IMPACTS:
- MVFR CEILINGS ADVANCING NORTHWARD THIS MORNING, AND IFR/WORSE
POSSIBLE AT KHUF/KBMG 10Z TO MID MORNING WEDNESDAY
- INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AFTER 07-08Z WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS MORNING, ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON
- MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR ALL TAF SITES, EXCEPT KLAF
DISCUSSION:
MVFR CEILINGS ALREADY AT KBMG, WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
MOST SITES. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION IS LOW AT KLAF.
BETWEEN CONVECTION, ASSOCIATED LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR
AT KBMG/KHUF, AND POSSIBLY AT KIND, AFTER 07-08Z. KLAF SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. MVFR ELSEWHERE TO SCATTER OUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR KBMG/KHUF.
BRIEF MVFR OR WORSE VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
STORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THEN TAPERING OFF BETWEEN 20-23Z.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...AGM
AVIATION...MELO
DISCUSSION...UPDIKE/MELO
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