840
FXUS63 KIND 271059
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
659 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES TODAY
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
CURRENT KIND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL IN. THIS
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL CONTINUE
GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH BEFORE STALLING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. MODEST
FORCING FROM THE DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
SUPPORTS INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MORNING. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON WHETHER OR NOT FAR NW COUNTIES WILL SEE MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AS SOME DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE EVIDENT BY DEWPOINTS STILL
AROUND THE MID-UPPER 50S. GRADUAL MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW
FOR TOP-DOWN SATURATION WITH TIME THOUGH.
A BRIEF LULL OR PERIOD OF LOWER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS MID MORNING DEPENDING ON COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. DAYTIME HEATING ATOP THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY THEN LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO RELATIVELY
WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, BUT SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS LATEST
CAMS SUGGEST MODERATE DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING BY THE AFTERNOON. A
DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT THOUGH WHILE ALSO
PROMOTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. SLOW MOVING STORMS ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TRAINING MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TODAY WILL HELP TO
FINALLY PUSH THE DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE AREA LATE TODAY. LOOK FOR
RAIN CHANCES TO QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM-HUMID DAY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN
DEVELOPING ALOFT WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CANADA. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT ANOTHER
WARM DAY THURSDAY IN THE LOW 80S WITH HIGHS THEN HOLDING NEARLY
STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A FEW MODELS HAVE HINTED AT THE RIDGE RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY,
ALLOWING FOR A SHORTWAVE TO MOVE IN ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE
SOLUTIONS ARE OUTLIERS, BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS
THIS COULD IMPACT TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS VERY
UNLIKELY DURING THE PERIOD.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
IMPACTS:
- IFR CEILINGS AT HUF/IND/BMG IMPROVING TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING.
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TODAY
- BRIEF MVFR OR WORSE VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR ALL TAF SITES, EXCEPT KLAF
DISCUSSION:
IFR CEILINGS ARE ONGOING AT IND/BMG/HUF, BUT WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO
MVFR TOWARDS MID-MORNING. LOOK FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO THEN SCATTER OUT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. KLAF SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR IND/HUF/BMG.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A
WEAK DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER THE AREA. BRIEF MVFR OR WORSE
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS. WINDS MAY BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES, BUT THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
PREDOMINATELY BE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FOR MOST SITES EXCEPT BMG.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AVIATION...MELO
DISCUSSION...MELO
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