685
FXUS63 KIND 131742
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
142 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TODAY, WITH ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
- MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-THURSDAY
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 943 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
HAVE MADE SMALL CHANGES TO BOTH TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT THROUGH
MIDDAY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE AS
EXPECTED SO FAR THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING
THE REGION INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY...WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY, WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 MPH AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON, BOOSTING DEWPOINTS UPWARD THROUGH THE 60S.
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS WILL REACH
WESTERN COUNTIES BY THE 21-00Z TIMEFRAME. PRIOR TO THESE LATE DAY
POPS, PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OVERSEE A RETURN TO
SEASONABLY SUMMER READINGS, WITH MOST LOCATIONS PEAKING AT 84-87
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING OVER CANADA WITH A ROUGHLY
ZONAL JET STREAM CROSSING THE NORTHERN CONUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER INDIANA, WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD TODAY, ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTHWARD,
WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
TO THE WEST, A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GUIDANCE SHOWS AN MCV
EMERGING FROM THIS CLUSTER, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A
SECONDARY ROUND OF CONVECTION ACROSS MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP OVER ILLINOIS AND
EXTEND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA, ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION. GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT REGARDING
THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS OR STORMS, SO PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE IS RATHER LOW. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WILL BE CARRIED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA.
A MORE POTENT VORT MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW TO OUR NORTH
ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. COMBINED WITH THE MCV, CONVECTION
UPSTREAM OVER MISSOURI AND INTO IOWA LIKELY CONSOLIDATES INTO A LINE
WHICH THEN PROPAGATES SOUTHEASTWARD. SHOULD AN MCS DEVELOP, IT WILL
BE AIDED BY RICH MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT AND EASTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO PROMOTE COLD POOL UPDRAFT BALANCE. SHEAR DIMINISHES
WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, HOWEVER, SO THE LIKELIHOOD OF A STRONG MCS IS
GREATER ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE MCS COULD JUST AS
WELL PASS SOUTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH LITTLE IMPACTS.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THIS DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
MODEST FORCING AND LACK OF A DISTINCT TRIGGERING MECHANISM (LIKE A
STRONG COLD FRONT). AS SUCH, CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION DEPENDS ON COLD
POOL DYNAMICS WHICH NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING. AS
SUCH, THE PREDICTABILITY OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION INTO INDIANA WILL
REMAIN LOW EVEN WITHIN THE VERY NEAR TERM.
WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA, AS EVEN WITH
AN MCS OR LACK THEREOF IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE VORT MAX ARE PROBABLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IN
TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL, UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SOUTHEASTWARD
PROPAGATING MCS WILL LEAD TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BECOMING THE
PRIMARY HAZARD. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH DISCRETE CONVECTION,
WHICH IS MORE PROBABLY DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER ILLINOIS BUT COULD
SNEAK INTO WESTERN INDIANA.
LOW CLOUDS AND DREARY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO SUNDAY, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS, UNTIL THE SYSTEM'S
COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THIS FRONT, WHICH LAGS BEHIND THE BEST FORCING
AND MOISTURE, COULD PASS THROUGH WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS DEPICT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT ITSELF THOUGH THESE ARE OUTLIERS AS OF THE 06Z MODEL
SUITE.
ONCE THE FRONT HAS PASSED, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. MULTIPLE DAYS OF COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
AS BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS ALOFT. ACTIVE WEATHER MAY RETURN MIDWEEK
AS EMBEDDED WAVES PIVOT AROUND THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. THESE WAVES
ARE DIFFICULT FOR GUIDANCE TO RESOLVE THIS FAR OUT, BUT THERE SEEMS
TO BE A LOOSE SIGNAL POINTING AT THE TUESDAY EVENING TO LATE
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
IMPACTS:
- LOW CHANCE FOR -SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
- SHRA/TSRA INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z SUNDAY
- MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY, IFR POSSIBLE BY 12Z
- WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WITHIN 10Z-16Z SUNDAY
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR CENTRAL INDIANA TERMINALS TODAY,
WITH LOW CHANCES OF -SHRA AFTER 21Z THROUGH THIS EVENING AMID
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SYSTEM/COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE CHANCES INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT...AS CORRESPONDING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
PROMOTE CEILINGS DETERIORATING TO MVFR AROUND 08Z-10Z...WITH BRIEF
IFR POSSIBLE AT KBMG/KIND. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY MORNING...FIRST
AS -SHRA TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...AND THEN AS STRATUS LIFTS TO
VFR FROM KLAF TO KBMG AROUND 15Z-19Z.
SSW/SW WINDS SLIGHTLY INCREASING WITHIN A 5-12KT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL INCLUDE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 15-20KT...BEFORE
DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AFTER 00Z, TO UNDER 7KT AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KIND. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING WILL VEER WINDS TO NW,
QUICKLY AT KLAF AROUND 11Z...AND MORE GRADUALLY AT KBMG DURING 12Z-
18Z.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...AGM
AVIATION...AGM
DISCUSSION...ECKHOFF
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