659
FXUS63 KIND 141548
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1148 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TODAY.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S
- WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: OVERALL SEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
- SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 905 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM SE MI TO NW INDIANA AND THEN TO SOUTHERN IL AND SE MO. CENTRAL
INDIANA REMAINED IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. GOES19 SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES ACROSS
INDIANA, AND THE CLEAR CHANNEL SHOWS SOME COOLER TOPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN INDIANA TO SOUTHERN IL. RADAR SHOWS
SOME SHOWERS OVER NE IL, STRETCHING SW TOWARD ME MO.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
SHOW THE ARRIVAL OF LOWER LEVEL SATURATION ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S. HRRR
SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE POSSIBLE
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO CLEAR THE STATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THUS GIVEN OUR JUICY DEW POINTS AND THE FORCING PROVIDED
BY THE FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING, HIGH POPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE USED
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL
PROBABLY LAST ONLY 60-90 MINUTES AT POINTS AS IT PASSES QUICKLY TO
THE EAST. EARLY HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID 70S WILL BE
EXPECTED FOLLOWED FALLING INTO THE 60S IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY.
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA SINCE MIDNIGHT BUT COVERAGE IS VERY LOW. WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN AREAS THAT SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING,
TRIMMING POPS ELSEWHERE, BEFORE ALLOWING PRECIP CHANCES TO INCREASE
TOWARDS DAWN.
A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN A LARGER LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS
ADVANCING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK,
MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY.
FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD LEAD TO MODEST BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION, RESULTING IN BETWEEN 500 TO 1500 J/KG MLCAPE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON, INITIATED BY
THE FRONT AND AIDED BY SYNOPTIC FORCING. THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY MAY
BE MITIGATED BY POOR MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THOUGH STORMS
MAY BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS, THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPDRAFTS WILL
LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. A FEW SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, HOWEVER, SINCE AROUND 40KT OF BULK SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD, GIVEN A QUASILINEAR STORM MODE FORCED BY THE FRONT.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTENSIFIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25KT AT TIMES BEFORE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE QUICKLY,
BECOMING CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS.
BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS THIS WEEK WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE QUASI-ZONAL JET STREAM THAT
ROUNDS ITS BASE. THESE WAVES MAY BRING PERIODIC CLOUDINESS AND EVEN
RAIN CHANCES AT TIMES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, A MORE
POTENT WAVE ARRIVES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE
WEATHER. BROAD TROUGHING PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING.
WEDNESDAY SEVERE POTENTIAL
DIGGING A BIT DEEPER INTO THE SYSTEM POISED TO BRING ACTIVE WEATHER
BACK TO THE REGION, WE SEE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE BROADER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
ENABLES CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH THE RESULTING
SURFACE LOW TRACKING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A POTENT LOW-LEVEL
JET THEN DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW, ALLOWING FOR
STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTHWARD. ADDITIONALLY, THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAM REMAINS OVERHEAD. MODEL HODOGRAPHS ARE LONG
AND CURVED, WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY MEAN SHEAR VECTOR.
A FEW SCENARIOS EXIST REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. FIRST, THE
STRONG WARM MOIST ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT FAR UPSTREAM OVER IOWA. THIS COULD CONSOLIDATE INTO AN
MCS AND PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND
WARM MOIST ADVECTION, AIDED BY SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS IN SUCH A
SCENARIO.
SECOND, THERE IS NO EARLY CONVECTION AND OR THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS
FROM EARLIER STORMS (STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET MAY EASILY ALLOW THIS TO
HAPPEN EVEN IF THERE IS MORNING CONVECTION, SIMPLY BY ADVECTING THE
RAIN COOLED AIR MASS NORTHWARD). ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IS
MAXIMIZED BY CONTINUED STRONG WARM MOIST ADVECTION AND SOLAR
INSOLATION. THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER
ILLINOIS AND PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD. SHEAR VECTORS PERPENDICULAR TO
THE ADVANCING FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR DISCRETE MODE INITIALLY, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS
CIRCUMSTANCE. EVENTUALLY, CONVECTION WOULD GROW UPSCALE BECOMING
PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT.
THERE ARE A LOT OF MOVING PARTS WITH THIS, AND PREDICTABILITY IS
CURRENTLY LOW TO MEDIUM. GUIDANCE STILL NEEDS TO PROPERLY RESOLVE
THE INITIATING WAVE AND SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE POTENTIAL FOR
EARLY CONVECTION IS ALWAYS A WILD CARD AND CAN SUBSTANTIALLY ALTER
THE PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG LOW,
POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET AND SHEAR, IT IS CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING OVER
THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
IMPACTS:
- BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
- VFR RETURNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
- WINDS BECOMING NW AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION:
A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE NEAR IND AND BMG
NEAR 18Z. A FEW SHOWERS, AS SEEN ON RADAR, WILL QUICKLY BE EXITING
TO THE EAST NEAR ISSUANCE. THUS THESE SHOWERS AND THE ASSOCIATED
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY EXIT, BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 19Z-20Z.
MODELS SUGGEST GOOD SUBSIDENCE ARRIVING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING
SKIES THIS EVENING AND A LOSS OF CIGS.
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...PUMA
AVIATION...PUMA
DISCUSSION...ECKHOFF
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