005
FXUS63 KIND 150531
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
131 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S
- SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1003 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED. CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH EARLIER IN THE
DAY. THE DRIER AIRMASS COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN WILL KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND FALLING. CLEARING SKIES AND
WINDS BECOMING VERY LIGHT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE. IF ANY FOG DEVELOPS EXPECT IT TO QUICKLY MIX OUT
MONDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
MAIN FOCUS CURRENTLY IS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE MODEST, BUT MEAGER WITH 500-
1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE LINE. BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
IN OHIO WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THIS LINE REMAINS FAIRLY STEADY-
STATE WITH SOME MINOR STRENGTHENING BEFORE IT EXITS TOWARDS MID-
AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT, CAA IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN AREA OF 25-35 MPH
WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THESE GUSTS ARE GENERALLY LASTING AROUND 45-90 MINUTES BEFORE WINDS
DROP DOWN CLOSER TO THE 15-25 MPH RANGE. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THESE
CONDITIONS TO BE SIMILAR FOR LOCATIONS TO THE EAST AS THE LINE
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS FURTHER INTO EASTERN INDIANA.
DISCUSSION (THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
OVERVIEW.
CENTRAL INDIANA CAN LOOK FORWARD TO A BRIEF BUT WELCOME BREAK FROM
THE RECENT ACTIVE AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE
WORK-WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY IN THE AFTERMATH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID-70S BUT BY TUESDAY
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP ALONGSIDE CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY, A STRONGER STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE MIDWEST, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC DRIVER THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WILL BE
THE STRUCTURAL EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW SPINNING OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP CENTRAL INDIANA SITUATED ON
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A BROAD, LONGWAVE TROUGH CHARACTERIZED BY
LOWERED HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL US. TONIGHT WILL SEE ROBUST
POST-FRONTAL CAA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE BOUNDARY, CAUSING LOW-
LEVEL WIND PROFILES TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. RAPID DEEP-LAYER DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL EFFECTIVELY SCOUR OUT THE RESIDUAL HIGH-THETA-E
AIRMASS, DROPPING PWAT VALUES SIGNIFICANTLY. STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND A DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
ALLOW OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS TO DROP EFFICIENTLY INTO THE LOW TO MID-50S
BY MONDAY MORNING.
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. CONTINUED
CAA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S A MINOR, MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
BOTH GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW DRY COLUMNS WHICH WILL KEEP
IMPACTS LIMITED TO A MORE ROBUST AFTERNOON CU FIELD.
BY TUESDAY, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHIFTS AS THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
SLIDES EAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC, CAUSING LOW-LEVEL WIND VECTORS
TO VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO A
WAA REGIME WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OUT OF SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY ON
TUESDAY WILL INITIALLY BE MODEST, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING
SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER 50S. HOWEVER, STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING AND
AN AMPLIFYING LOW-LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT WILL ACT TO ERODE THE
CAPPING INVERSION BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERABLE VARIANCE EXISTS WITHIN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE TUESDAY
SYSTEM THE DETERMINISTIC GFS REMAINS A DRIER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
OUTLIER, SUGGESTING THAT THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL FORCING STAYS
DISPLACED TOO FAR TO THE NORTH TO BREAK THE LOW-LEVEL CAP, WHICH
WOULD KEEP CENTRAL INDIANA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CONVERSELY, THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL REGIONAL CAMS ARE MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE, BRINGING A DEEPER WAVE THAT INITIATES A LINE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS MARGINAL ON
TUESDAY DUE TO LIMITED SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY, MODEST MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5°C/KM AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS OR SMALL HAIL. THIS INITIAL WAVE
WILL ULTIMATELY PRIME THE ENVIRONMENT FOR A MUCH MORE VOLATILE, HIGH-
PWAT SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS DEEP PACIFIC ENERGY INTERACTS WITH A BUILDING WARM FRONT
NEAR THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD WILL BE IN STORE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE
UPPER FLOW WILL START ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEING DOMINATED BY
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CANADA, RESULTING A QUICK UPPER FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL WAVES
PASSING ACROSS OUR REGION WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT, PROVIDING SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES. OF NOTE, A STRONGER WAVE, ALONG WITH A WELL
ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW IS SUGGESTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS HINTING TO BE POTENT.
INDIANA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER FORCING
PASSES. A STRONG LLJ OF 60-70 KNTS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA WITHIN THAT FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT THAT TIME SUGGEST
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION. THUS WE WILL BE WATCHING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE VERY GOOD, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MORE RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY AS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT AND ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AMID THIS FLOW WILL
PASS. INDIANA LOOKS TO BE STILL IMPACTED BY THE WRAP AROUND FLOW OF
THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW, THUS CHANCES FOR WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL NEED TO BE INCLUDED.
FOR THE MOMENT, DRY WEATHER LOOKS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WHILE WEAK RIDGING AND A BREAK
WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE WITHIN THE UPPER
FLOW.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A PAIR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS, ONE ARRIVING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND A SECOND SYSTEM ARRIVING ON SUNDAY FROM
THE PLAINS AS THE QUICK UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES.
TEMPERATURE WISE THROUGH THE PERIOD, THERE ARE NO INTRUSIONS OF HOT
TROPICAL AIR, AND THE CANADIAN LOW TO THE NORTH REMAINS THE MAIN
PLAYER. THUS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK
AHEAD.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
IMPACTS:
- LOW CHANCE PATCHY FOG AT LAF, HUF, AND BMG.
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES FOLLOWING SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT.
SOME VFR CEILINGS AROUND 5000 TO 6000 FEET REMAIN, BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING. PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT LAF, HUF, AND BMG.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. A PERIOD
OF CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN. WINDS PICK UP A BIT AFTER SUNRISE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AS THE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD. BY NIGHTFALL, A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZE UNDER 5KT WILL TAKE HOLD.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...MELO
AVIATION...ECKHOFF
DISCUSSION...WHITE/PUMA
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