478
FXUS63 KIND 161710
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
110 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY,
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
- SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 924 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN WI TO EASTERN IA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WAS RESULTING IN SW FLOW ACROSS INDIANA. DEW POINTS
WERE IN THE 50S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER NW WI,
WITH A WAVE OVER EASTERN WI AND CENTRAL IL, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
NON SEVERE STORMS. OTHERWISE, SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER IN.
AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWS SHALLOW CAPE AVAILABLE, BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE
AVAILABLE WITH PWATS OVER 0.8 INCHES. HRRR SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE WABASH VALLEY PUSHING ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL LINES OF STORMS. THUS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE HIGH POPS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA,
WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDINESS.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL FORCING AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
GENERATE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION THAT WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
ENOUGH THAT A BRIEF STRONG STORM WITH THIS LINE CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY LINE FORMING CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PUSHING EAST INTO EARLY
EVENING. THIS LINE WILL HAVE BETTER SHEAR TO WORK WITH AND HAVE
BETTER ODDS FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH IT, ESPECIALLY NORTH.
THESE SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY IS LOST.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
TO AROUND 80 THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWS IN THE 50S TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AN ANOMALOUSLY POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA
WEDNESDAY.
FORCING FROM AN UPPER WAVE AND A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING
850MB WINDS (AROUND 50KT BY 21Z) WILL PUMP IN HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BECOME HIGH ENOUGH THAT
SOME SEVERE CELLS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COMPLEX, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.
MOST GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A BREAK BETWEEN THE INITIAL
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AND THEN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SHEAR
WILL BE HIGHER FOR THIS CONVECTION, AND GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM, INSTABILITY WILL RECOVER FROM ADVECTION
EVEN IF CLOUDS FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION DO NOT CLEAR OUT.
ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SECOND ROUND
OF CONVECTION. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR THE OLD WARM
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA (OR WHERE OLD OUTFLOW
FROM THE EARLIER COMPLEX ENDS UP), BUT GIVEN THE SHEAR THEY ARE
POSSIBLE ALL AREAS. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE MOST LIKELY NORTH WHERE
SUPERCELLS MAY LAST THE LONGEST. GIVEN THE POTENT WIND FIELDS,
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL LOCATIONS.
ALSO WITH THE STRONG WIND FIELDS, OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WINDS MAY
GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AN UPWARD
TREND MAY REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY.
THIS SYSTEM NEARLY MAXES OUT MOST PARAMETERS COMPARED TO MODEL
CLIMATOLOGY. IF THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AS EXPECTED, IT COULD
POTENTIALLY SET NEW RECORD LOW PRESSURE VALUES FOR LOWER MICHIGAN
FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE.
OF COURSE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. SOME MACHINE LEARNING
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTS HAVE THE MAXIMUM THREAT FARTHER SOUTH,
CLOSER TO I-70. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY, BUT SOME SEVERE
WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY REGARDLESS.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...
THE COLD FRONT MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME POPS TO BE NEEDED
SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE AROUND
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH THE AREA MAINLY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. READINGS MAY
RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
IMPACTS:
- ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
MORE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLAY FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER TWO
UPPER LEVEL PASSING WAVES WILL HELP TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW SHOWERS INITIALLY ON RADAR NEAR 18Z WILL
QUICKLY PUSH TO THE EAST BY 21Z. THIS WILL THEN ALLOW THE FIRST
UPPER WAVE OF FORCING TO PASS, IMPACTING MAINLY DURING THE 21Z TO
02Z PERIOD.
HAVE USED A LARGE VCTS WINDOW TO ACCOUNT THROUGH THIS.
AFTER DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT, AN MCS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
PROPAGATE TOWARD INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A
RETURN OF CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AGAIN, HAVE USED ANOTHER WINDOW OF VCSH FOR THIS CHANCE.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSRA THAT STRIKES A
TAF SITE.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...PUMA
AVIATION...PUMA
DISCUSSION...50
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