467
FXUS63 KIND 181655
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1255 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
- A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY
- BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 859 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO, PROVIDING CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS INDIANA. HIGH
PRESSURE WAS FOUND ACROSS THE NW PLAINS STATES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS FOUND STILL LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NRN KY. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS FOUND OVER LOWER MI AND NRN IL. GOES19
SHOWS CONVECTION NEAR THE OHIO RIVER, ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE, SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE PUSHING ACROSS IL TOWARD
IN WITHIN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT. A FEW SHOWERS WERE FOUND WITH THIS
OVER NRN MO.
THIS AFTERNOON...THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO SAG
SOUTHWARD ACROSS INDIANA. MEANWHILE THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO THE
WEST WITHIN THE QUICK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO REACH CENTRAL INDIANA
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO PROVIDE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ARRIVAL OF SOME MID
LEVEL SATURATION THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER LOWER LEVELS REMAIN DRY.
HRRR SUGGESTS SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
BEST CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS IN PLAY TODAY ON NW WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING...
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WHERE
INSTABILITY REMAINS BUT WILL BE SLOWLY WEAKENING. SEVERE STORM
THREAT SHOULD END BEFORE 08Z AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION
SINKS SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA, LIMITING THE INFLOW OF STORMS TO THE
NORTH. THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO FLOODING WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF
STORMS MOVING THROUGH. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT BY THE END OF THE
FLOOD WATCH VALID TIME, MOST AREAS WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO ONGOING
FLOOD ADVISORIES/WARNINGS, SO WILL LET IT EXPIRE.
TODAY...
BY 12Z RAIN SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, SO WILL START THE
DAY OFF DRY. HOWEVER, SOME ADDITIONAL UPPER FORCING WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES OR A FEW
SHOWERS. WILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE NUMBERS AS CLOUD COVER WITH THE
AFTERNOON SPRINKLES/SHOWERS MAY KEEP READINGS DOWN.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S TONIGHT AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...
A WEAK SYSTEM IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SOME FORCING TO THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. WILL HAVE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. BELOW NORMAL READINGS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 WILL CONTINUE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTIONS IN
TIMING OF THESE, BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO SOME MOISTURE
AND BRING NEAR AN INCH OF RAIN.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO KEEP THE AREA DRY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK, BUT
SOME UPPER ENERGY MAY TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AROUND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
IMPACTS:
- VFR THIS TAF PERIOD
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS ACROSS THE HUF AND IND TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THEY PASS. A WINDOW OF VCSH WAS USED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER WITH MINIMAL
CLOUD COVER, AND CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.
SOME VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS DAYTIME
HEATING ALLOWS CU DEVELOPMENT.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...PUMA
AVIATION...PUMA
DISCUSSION...50
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