339
FXUS63 KIND 040504
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
104 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 9PM TODAY
- GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE COMPARED TO SATURDAY, STORMS MAY
IMPACT AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITIES
- DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
- TRENDING COOLER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
OVERVIEW.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK, BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES AND A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY WILL FEATURE
HIGH THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY PAIRED WITH WEAK KINEMATIC SUPPORT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500MB CHARTS SHOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS FLATTENING AND SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY,
ALLOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA.
IN THE NEAR-TERM, WE'RE TRACKING A COMPLEX OF SUB-SEVERE STORMS
SLOWLY SLIDING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. CLOUD TOPS ARE GRADUALLY WARMING, SO EXPECT
THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN, BUT AT LEAST A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN LOOK LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA TOWARDS THE LATE OVERNIGHT.
THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED DURING PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN STORMS GENERALLY BETWEEN
19Z AND 02Z. CAMS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WHICH IS TYPICAL IN
WEAKLY-FORCED ENVIRONMENTS LIKE THIS. CAMS ALSO HAVE UNDERDONE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION, SO WILL BE BUMPING UP POPS QUITE A BIT AND
TRYING TO FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS WHERE ANY BOUNDARIES FROM THE STORM
COMPLEX TO THE NORTH SETTLES OUT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURSTS. MLCAPE
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 3000 TO 3500 J/KG, DRIVEN BY SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE MID-70S AND AMBIENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S.
SOUNDINGS ALSO EXHIBIT A WELL-MIXED LOWER TROPOSPHERE WITH 0-3 KM
LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5 C/KM AND A LAYER OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR, YIELDING
DCAPE VALUES OVER 1200 J/KG. WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2.0 INCHES,
HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN STORM CORES. AS
THESE CORES DESCEND, NEGATIVE BUOYANCY AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. BECAUSE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS
UNDER 15 KNOTS, STORMS WILL BE SLOW-MOVING AND OUTFLOW-DOMINANT,
WHICH INTRODUCES ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM LONGEVITY
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
CONVECTION COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING, BUT THERE ARE SOME SIGNS
THAT A MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY BE MOVING EAST OUT OF
ILLINOIS WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED BY COLD-POOLING OF AFTERNOON
STORMS. IF THIS OCCURS, EVENING FIREWORK ACTIVITIES WILL LIKELY BE
IMPACTED WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA. SUNDAY
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL STORMS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO SATURDAY,
ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY LOOKS LOWER WHICH WILL ALSO LOWER THE
SEVERE THREAT.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO MINOR SHORTWAVE
RIPPLES AND THE REMNANTS OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVING OUT OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. SCATTERED, MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITHIN A HUMID AND MINIMALLY
CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER.
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MORE SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGE BY MID-WEEK. A ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY,
DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH INDIANA. THIS FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SEVERITY OF THE
CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE MIDWEST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS, BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AND LOWERING DEW
POINTS INTO THE COMFORTABLE 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
IMPACTS:
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT,
MAINLY NEAR KLAF
- GREATER CHANCE FOR STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS, LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING
DISCUSSION:
A LOOSELY ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWER AND STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHERN IL/IN. THIS CONVECTION WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
BETWEEN 07Z TO 12Z. INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR KLAF, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN IMPACTS AT THE OTHER TERMINALS IS TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION.
A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
WHEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEARS LIKELY. A TEMPO
GROUP WAS INCLUDED FOR ALL SITES, BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING EXACT
TIMING REMAINS LIMITED. THIS IS DUE TO GUIDANCE STRUGGLING IN THESE
WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENTS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS.
SURFACE WINDS OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AND REMAIN LIGHT
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
AVIATION...MELO
DISCUSSION...WHITE
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