138
FXUS63 KIND 060158
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
958 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED STORMS MONDAY, SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED
- SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY PRODUCE POCKETS OF FLOODING
- MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 956 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
CURRENT KIND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OHIO AND LINGERING MOISTURE. THESE FEW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AN ADDITIONAL STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN PLACE.
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND A LOW STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT AS NOCTURNAL COOLING OCCURS IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. WINDS
REMAINING LIGHT AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO FAVORS FOG
DEVELOPMENT. PATCHY DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOOK FOR LOWS TO
COOL INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S, LIMITED BY HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
DISCUSSION (THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
AN EXCEPTIONALLY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
CONTINUED RISKS FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THROUGH
MONDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE SLOWLY DRIFTS THROUGH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BRIEFLY REESTABLISH AS THE WAVE ALOFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFT
SOUTH FOR MIDWEEK. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS LIKELY TO
STALL IN THE REGION WILL BRING A RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO SAY THE LEAST BUT
HAVE SEEN A GRADUAL MIXING OUT INTO A BROKEN STRATOCU FIELD OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS. TEMP RISES WERE STUNTED AS A RESULT BUT AS OF 18Z
READINGS NOW RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
THE THICK CLOUD DECK FROM EARLIER DELAYED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BUT MESOANALYSIS INDICATING THAT 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE
NOW PRESENT. WITH A WEAKER UPPER WAVE OVER THE REGION AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE LINGERING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...STARTING TO SEE
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOP. JUST BASED ON WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY AND HIGHEST PWATS LIE...THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN PARTICULAR WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR GREATEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING. THAT BEING SAID...POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER
OR STORM REMAINS OVER ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA INTO THE EVENING.
TO THIS POINT CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHALLOW IN NATURE WITH THE KIND
ACARS SOUNDING SHOWING A CAP PRESENT IN THE 825-750MB LAYER.
ADDITIONAL HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD ERODE THAT CAP A
BIT BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL FORCING AND SHEAR...CONVECTION
WILL STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN HEIGHT AND INTENSITY. ANY STRONGER CELL
WILL CARRY A THREAT FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS CORES COLLAPSE...BUT
THE SLOW STORM MOTION SUPPORTS TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AS THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING.
COVERAGE WILL AGAIN DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET ALTHOUGH MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AS A
DEEPER MOISTURE FETCH CURLS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING A RETURN OF LOWER STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG AS A SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL INVERSION ESTABLISHES. MONDAY WILL BE A NEAR CARBON COPY
OF TODAY WITH MORNING STRATUS BEING SLOW TO MIX OUT. AS FILTERED SUN
DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER WAVE LINGERING OVER THE
REGION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DEVELOP FOCUSED
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIPS SOUTH
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. WITH RIDGING ALOFT EXPANDING INTO THE AREA AS
WELL...THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE FORCED CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER
ON TUESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO THE LOWER AND
MID 80S...WITH MONDAY AS THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS DUE TO THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT THAT POKES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WILL BE
IN THE PROCESS OF RETREAT ON WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUCKLE
FROM THE NORTH AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. ENOUGH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE LINGERING HOWEVER SHOULD LIMIT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THE BEST THREAT
FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW
AND DEEPER MOISTURE.
THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE A COLD FRONT SET TO
DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY REESTABLISHING A
BROADER CONVECTIVE RISK FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE INCREASING
HINTS THAT THE BOUNDARY MAY GET BOGGED DOWN OVER THE REGION AS IT
RUNS INTO THE FLATTENED RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...A TYPICAL MID-SUMMER
PATTERN WHEN STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT ARE POOR AND SURFACE WAVES ARE
WEAK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWEST AS THE
CORE OF THE HEAT RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
THERE IS A GROWING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO TRACK ACROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS INDIVIDUAL
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACT WITH THE QUASI-STAIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
DETAIL ON PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY AND PRIMARY TIMING OF CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS REMAINS INCONCLUSIVE AT THIS EARLY STAGE...BUT DAILY RAIN
CHANCES ARE GOING TO BE NEEDED INTO SATURDAY AT A MINIMUM WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH BY SUNDAY. NO STRONG
SIGNALS ARE PRESENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED AT
THIS TIME BUT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CARRY A LOCALIZED RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS/MICROBURSTS WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS. HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH A DEEPLY SATURATED
AIRMASS HIGHLIGHTED BY PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES.
TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY HOVER NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. MID TO UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL COOL INTO THE WEEKEND. A COOLER DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN FROM
THE NORTH LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO
FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S IN SPOTS.
AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
IMPACTS:
- LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING,
MAINLY NEAR LAF
- POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS TONIGHT
DISCUSSION:
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NW OHIO WAS CONTINUING TO PROVIDE WEAK
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SCT-BKN LOW VFR CLOUDS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS CLOUD COVER LIMITED DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH THE DAY. KLAF IS THE ONLY SITE WITH A VCSH MENTION AT THIS
TIME.
ANY STORMS WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, HOWEVER CYCLONIC
ALONG WITH LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR
MVFR/IFR CIGS TO FORM OVERNIGHT WITH FOG. CLOUDS AND FOG WILL MIX
OUT DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...MELO
AVIATION...MELO
DISCUSSION...RYAN
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