037
FXUS63 KIND 061327
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
927 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TODAY, HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS
EASTERN INDIANA
- SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY PRODUCE POCKETS OF FLOODING
- GENERALLY DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 927 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
ANOTHER MORNING WITH LOW STRATUS DRAPED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
UNLIKE SUNDAY MORNING HOWEVER...BREAKS IN THE DECK WERE OCCURRING
MORE QUICKLY. 13Z TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW AND MID 70S.
TODAY WILL LIKELY PLAY OUT VERY SIMILARLY TO SUNDAY WITH THE STRATUS
GRADUALLY MIXING OUT INTO A BROKEN CU FIELD BUT HAPPENS FASTER WITH
POCKETS OF CLEARING ALREADY OCCURRING. THIS COULD ALSO SUPPORT A BIT
MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON VERSUS WHAT OCCURRED
SUNDAY AS THE BACK END OF AN UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL AGAIN BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY WEAK INSTABILITY
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. MAIN CONCERNS WILL AGAIN BE ON LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANY CONVECTION WILL
LARGELY DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET.
LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. ZONE AND
GRID UPDATES OUT.
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
OVERVIEW.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY GENERALLY LIMITED TO SOUTHERN INDIANA. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, RESULTING IN DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, BUT WITH THE LOWER THAN FORECAST RAIN COVERAGE TODAY, THE
LOW LEVELS AREN'T QUITE AS MOIST WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG COVERAGE
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT HAS BEEN A CATALYST FOR THE RAIN/STORMS
RECENTLY WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TODAY
WITH LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY,
MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA. MORNING LOW STRATUS AND A
SHALLOW INVERSION WILL INITIALLY LIMIT INSOLATION AND DELAY DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION. FOLLOWING DIURNAL CLEARING BY MIDDAY, MLCAPE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE DURING PEAK HEATING BETWEEN 19Z
AND 02Z. WEAK KINEMATIC FIELDS, WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR UNDER 15
KNOTS, WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND RESULT IN SLOW CELL MOTION.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING REPRESENT THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS, THOUGH ISOLATED SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE VIA
LOCALIZED PRECIPITATION LOADING. STORMS WILL ALSO EXHIBIT A MORE
UNUSUAL STORM MOTION, GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE NORTH. RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE
RESTRICTED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
RETREATING MOISTURE PLUME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN TO
SUPPRESS SOUTHWARD AS HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. LINGERING DRY
AIR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE, KEEPING THE PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BOUNDARY.
A PATTERN TRANSITION OCCURS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES, DRIVING A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AS IT ENCOUNTERS
A FLAT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. WITHIN THIS
WEAK STEERING REGIME, SUCCESSIVE LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE, INTERACTING WITH A REPLENISHED
MOISTURE RESERVOIR FEATURING PWAT VALUES NEAR 2.00 INCHES.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR THE DAILY CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND
MULTI-CELL ARRAYS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN WEAK DEEP-
LAYER WIND SHEAR, ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED,
THOUGH LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND POTENTIAL
TRAINING OF CELLS WILL MAKE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY HOVER IN THE
MID-80S THROUGH FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST RELIEF FROM THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS LOOKS LESS LIKELY AS THE DRIER CANADIAN AIR REMAINS
LOCKED TO THE NORTH.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 626 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
IMPACTS:
- MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO LIFT TO VFR BY 13-14Z
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 22Z TODAY
DISCUSSION:
ANY LINGERING MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY
13 TO 14Z WITH A LOW-END CHANCE THAT THE CIGS PERSIST TO 15-16Z.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERALLY MOVING VERY SLOWLY IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT IND TOWARDS THE 22-
02Z TIMEFRAME, COVERAGE ELSEWHERE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT EVEN A
PROB30 AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY AT 5-10KTS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...RYAN
AVIATION...WHITE
DISCUSSION...WHITE
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