727
FXUS63 KIND 070119
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
919 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GENERALLY DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 919 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY. RADAR THIS EVENING SHOWS DIURNAL SHOWERS HAVE
CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE AS EVENING COOLING HAS BEEN ONGOING. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA AND POINTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AMID A LARGE AND WIDE PLUME OF
GULF MOISTURE.
OVERNIGHT, LITTLE AVAILABLE FORCING WILL BE PRESENT TO DRIVE ANY
PRECIP, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. HRRR SUGGESTS THE
ARRIVAL OF SOME CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST COLUMN
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70, DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE SMALL OVERNIGHT. THUS
CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE EXPECTED LATE OVERNIGHT AS RH'S
APPROACH SATURATION. OVERALL, ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
DISCUSSION (THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
A HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH CONTINUED RISKS
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN
UPPER WAVE SLOWLY DRIFTS THROUGH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY
REESTABLISH AS THE WAVE ALOFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFT SOUTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BY LATE THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
STRATUS HAS FULLY MIXED OUT INTO A CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS DRIFTING SOUTH TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE INDY
METRO. 18Z TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S.
THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER WAVE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE REGION
WILL DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTERACT WITH A
WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS PRESENT. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHALLOW IN
NATURE BUT ADDITIONAL HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD LEAD TO
A SUBTLE UPTICK IN COVERAGE THROUGH LATE DAY FOCUSED ESPECIALLY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY STRONGER CELL WILL CARRY
A THREAT FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS CORES COLLAPSE...BUT THE SLOW
STORM MOTION SUPPORTS TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM
CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET WITH QUIET
YET MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS
TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS TUESDAY...BUT THE EXPANSION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH SHOULD
KEEP STRATUS FROM BECOMING AS WIDESPREAD AS IT HAS THE LAST TWO
MORNINGS. WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL EXPAND ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY...FORCING THE CONVECTIVE THREAT CLOSER TO
THE OHIO RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH NO APPRECIABLE FORCING
ALOFT AND A LARGELY DRY COLUMN...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP
ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON
BUT THAT SHOULD EVEN SHIFT SOUTH LATE DAY AS WEAK SUBSIDENCE ADVECTS
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY BUT SUBTLE
SURFACE RIDGING LINGERS WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREAS AS THE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
LIFTS BACK NORTH AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL
FLOW. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE LARGELY SOUTH OF A
SULLIVAN-BLOOMINGTON-COLUMBUS LINE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST OF CENTRAL
INDIANA.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE A COLD FRONT DRIFTING
SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY
AS IT BUMPS INTO THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWEST AS THE CORE OF THE HEAT
RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...THERE IS INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO TRACK ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS INDIVIDUAL PERTURBATIONS
ALOFT INTERACT WITH THE QUASI-STAIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
DETAIL ON PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY AND PRIMARY TIMING OF CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS REMAINS INCONCLUSIVE AT THIS EARLY STAGE. NO STRONG SIGNALS
ARE PRESENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME BUT CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY CARRY A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS/MICROBURSTS WITH ANY
STRONGER CELLS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE PRIMARY
CONCERNS WITH A DEEPLY SATURATED AIRMASS HIGHLIGHTED BY PWATS
APPROACHING 2 INCHES.
TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY HOVER NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. MID TO UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY WILL COOL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A COOLER DRIER AIRMASS MAY
REMAIN BOTTLED UP TO THE NORTH LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT BACK EAST TOWARDS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
IMPACTS:
- VFR THIS EVENING.
- MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...IN PATCHY FOG AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY
TUESDAY.
- VFR ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION:
VERY ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. THIS WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE EVENING AND THE EARLY OVERNIGHT.
LOWER STRATUS AND FOG MAY ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AGAIN. HIGH DEW POINTS
AND LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ALONG LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR DIURNAL MINIMUMS. ANY STRATUS/FOG WILL
MIX OUT TUESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH, LEADING TO A RETURN TO VFR.
BKN VFR CIGS DUE TO DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...PUMA
AVIATION...PUMA
DISCUSSION...RYAN
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