007
FXUS63 KIND 071826
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
226 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
- UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN AND STORMS
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING FLOODING AND STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
DISCUSSION (THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY BY LATE THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE EXERTING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME HAS BEEN SHIFTED INTO THE TENNESSEE AND
LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. AS A RESULT DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED SOUTH TAKING
AN EDGE OFF THE OPPRESSIVE AIRMASS OVER THE LAST WEEK. 18Z
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
MUCH OF THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS A PRIMARY INFLUENCE. FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT
THAT TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO THE SOUTH THROUGH LATE DAY AS DRIER
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANT UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. AS THE FEATURE GRADUALLY
WEAKENS AND MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION...THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL PULL
BACK NORTH SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND OPEN UP THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DRIFT BACK INTO FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
MUCH OF THURSDAY WILL END UP BEING QUIET AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE DEPARTS OFF TO THE EAST AND LEAVES WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE
REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL INTRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION BUT THE
FOCUS WILL TURN TOWARDS A STRONGER WAVE ALOFT TRAVELING IN TANDEM
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. DEEP CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THE EXPANSION OF A LOW LEVEL JET
INTO THE REGION WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES NEARLY
PARALLEL. PWATS WILL SURGE TO NEAR 2 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH FLOODING AGAIN BECOMING A CONCERN FROM
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES. STORMS MAY CARRY A RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AS WELL...PARTICULARLY IF THE CONVECTION THURSDAY EVENING CAN
BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT. AT THIS POINT...GREATEST IMPACTS FROM
STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO MAKE A RUN AT 90 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE AND SUFFICIENT FORCING FROM
THE MULTIPLE WAVES WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY.
DAYTIME HEATING ATOP THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
PROMOTE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY EACH DAY. MEANWHILE, SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENT OF MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT UP TO 30 KT OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DURING THE PERIOD GIVEN THE AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MODEST
SHEAR AT TIMES.
THE GREATER CONCERN LATE THIS WEEK WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGHLY EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES IN ADDITION TO THE
EXPECTED MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2.0 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
WHICH EXCEEDS THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR CLIMATOLOGY THIS TIME OF YEAR.
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES COMBINED WITH REPEATED STORMS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT TO MONITOR FOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING OCCURS.
SUNDAY ONWARD
MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY DEPICTS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTING
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. UPPER RIDGING SHOULD THEN BUILD IN ALOFT LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDING MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WHICH LEADS TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. IF THE RIDGE REMAINS FURTHER WEST,
SUBTLE IMPULSE RIDING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE COULD
PROMOTE MCSS OR STORM CLUSTERS PROPAGATING TOWARDS CENTRAL INDIANA.
THIS SCENARIO APPEARS UNLIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THIS COULD PLAY OUT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.
INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES ADVECTING
TOWARDS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR HIGHS
TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO POSSIBLY NEAR 90F EARLY NEXT WEEK. HUMID
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE HEAT MAY RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING THE MID 90S.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
IMPACTS:
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE PREDAWN WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION:
HIGH PRESSURE HAS EXPANDED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DRIER AIR EXPANDING SOUTH. DIURNAL CU FIELD IN PLACE BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS THOUGH WILL LINGER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A REMNANT UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
PREDAWN WEDNESDAY AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AVIATION...RYAN
DISCUSSION...RYAN/MELO
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