283
FXUS63 KIND 081854
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
254 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTH-
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
- ADDITIONAL RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING
POSSIBLE
DISCUSSION (THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT KIND RADAR IMAGERY DOES
DEPICT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND A DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE WHICH HAS SLOWLY LIFTED NORTH. THE
DISTURBANCE MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A STRAY STORM ACROSS FAR
SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR
TRANQUIL WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BRIEF PATCHY FOG
CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY DUE TO VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST WAVE
MOVING IN LATE THURSDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
THE BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE AND
SUFFICIENT FORCING FROM THE MULTIPLE WAVES WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
ELEVATED.
DAYTIME HEATING ATOP THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
PROMOTE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENT OF MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL
PROMOTE UP TO 30 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AMPLE INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT STEEP LAPSE
RATES, MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY, AND DCAPE VALUES APPROACHING
1000-1200 J/KG WHICH SUGGEST STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE GREATER CONCERN LATE THIS WEEK WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGHLY EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES IN ADDITION TO THE
EXPECTED MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2.0 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
WHICH EXCEEDS THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR CLIMATOLOGY THIS TIME OF YEAR.
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES COMBINED WITH REPEATED STORMS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT TO MONITOR FOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING OCCURS.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE PRIMARY
TREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL NOW ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA OR
LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH.
SUNDAY ONWARD
MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY DEPICTS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTING
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. UPPER RIDGING SHOULD THEN BUILD IN ALOFT LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDING MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER. GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THE RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR SHORTWAVES
TO TRACK TOWARDS THE REGION MID-LATE WEEK RETURNING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE FORECAST. EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
DUE TO DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS.
INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES ADVECTING
TOWARDS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR HIGHS
TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO POSSIBLY NEAR 90F EARLY NEXT WEEK. HUMID
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE HEAT MAY RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING THE MID 90S.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
IMPACTS:
- ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR KBMG THIS
AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK MID-UPPER
LEVEL LOW NEAR FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA COULD SUPPORT A STRAY SHOWER
OR STORM NEAR KBMG THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR
AN EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL ALSO BE VARIABLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THEN BECOMING PREDOMINATELY SOUTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT.
BRIEF PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY NEAR
THE OUTLYING TAF SITES, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM
WILL BRING A GREATER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT THE VERY END OF THE
TAF PERIOD TOWARDS THURSDAY EVENING.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AVIATION...MELO
DISCUSSION...MELO
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