785
FXUS63 KIND 090657
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
257 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOODING
THE PRIMARY THREATS
- ADDITIONAL RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE
- WARMER AND DRIER AGAIN NEXT WEEK, THOUGH WITH MORE MODEST HUMIDITY
THAN EXPERIENCED THE FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT -
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE OUTLYING AND FAVORED AREAS IN THE
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY AIRMASS, EXPECT GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER THIS MORNING, WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RAMPING UP THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA.
CAMS IN GENERAL ARE DEPICTING THE EVOLUTION OF ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS
OF STORMS INTO A LINEAR STRUCTURE LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT, WITH PRIMARILY A CONCERN FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MODEST BUT SUFFICIENT, AND MAY BE
ENHANCED SLIGHTLY BEYOND WHAT GUIDANCE DEPICTS BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
MCV. DIURNAL TIMING IS NOT IDEAL THOUGH MODERATELY STRONG
INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS -
APPROACHING AND POSSIBLY EXCEEDING MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000 J/KG.
SEASONABLY HIGH WET-BULB ZERO VALUES WILL LIMIT HAIL THREAT TO
PRIMARILY SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES ABSENT ANY MORE DISCRETE
CONVECTION, WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY, AND WHILE A BRIEF QLCS SPIN-UP
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, DAMAGING WINDS IN A SEASONABLE SETTING OF A
COLD-POOL DRIVEN MCS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES, WELL IN
EXCESS OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 90TH PERCENTILE, THE (MOSTLY)
PROGRESSIVE CAM SOLUTIONS DO GIVE SOME OPTIMISM THAT DESPITE
UNDENIABLE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, HYDROLOGIC THREAT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY LIMITED WITH TODAY AND TONIGHT'S CONVECTION, THOUGH
MESOSCALE REORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN THE FORM OF
BOUNDARIES AND THE LARGER SCALE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALWAYS BE
A CONCERN IN SUCH SETUPS, AND THE SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DAY ONE IS CERTAINLY REASONABLE.
OVERALL, CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TO
POSSIBLY MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE EVENING HOURS, PERHAPS
JUST PRIOR TO NIGHTFALL, AND PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST - WITH SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR BOTH SEVERE AND HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS.
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY -
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR HANDLING AND INTENSITY
OF THE DISTURBANCE. A CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE AT LEAST
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION, AND ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS ON SATURDAY AS WELL,
THOUGH THE THREAT WILL LESSEN AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH TIME, AND BE
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION,
LESSENING THE PREDICTABILITY AS TIME GOES ON.
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT,
THOUGH HYDRO CONCERNS WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY MORE PRESSING AS THE
AREA HAS BEEN DECENTLY WET IN RECENT WEEKS, AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WHAT MAY BE FAIRLY SLOW STORM
MOTIONS OUTSIDE OF MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS COULD PRESENT A LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT - WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS OUTLINE THIS
WELL.
NEXT WEEK -
THE PREDOMINANT STORY NEXT WEEK WILL BE A REASSERTION OF SUMMERTIME
HEAT AS A BRIEF PSEUDO-REX BLOCK PATTERN FORMS WITH THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE SLIDING BACK EASTWARD ATOP WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH, GRADUALLY RECONNECTING WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS THE 90 DEGREE MARK
IN SPOTS, THOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY MORE REASONABLE DEWPOINTS THAN THE
FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH, KEEPING MAX APPARENT TEMPERATURES STILL
TOASTY BUT FAR MORE MANAGEABLE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
FOR THE MOST PART, THOUGH AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
RULED OUT NEAR PEAK HEATING MANY DAYS. THAT SAID, THESE ARE QUITE
LOW PREDICTABILITY DAYS AHEAD OF TIME AND WILL NOT MERIT MENTIONABLE
POPS ON MOST DAYS.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
IMPACTS:
- MVFR, TEMPO IFR FOG POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK AT THE OUTLYING SITES
- SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 22-00Z AT ALL SITES
DISCUSSION:
GUIDANCE HAS GOTTEN MORE AGGRESSIVE ON FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT, AND
DO SEE SOME OF THE RURAL SITES ALREADY SEEING VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN LINE WITH THIS. WILL CARRY MVFR/TEMPO IFR FOG AT THE
3 OUTLYING SITES. IND SHOULD BE LARGELY PROTECTED BY THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND AND A SLIGHT VARIABLE BREEZE OVERNIGHT.
ONCE FOG MIXES OUT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AND REMAIN THROUGHOUT
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD, THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING THURSDAY
EVENING WHEN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE SITES.
WILL CARRY VCSH FOR NOW OWING TO UNCERTAINTY, BUT THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTS WILL BE AT LEAST A POSSIBILITY AT ALL SITES LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
(200-230 DEGREES) DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO
THE 15-18KT RANGE POSSIBLE AT MOST SITES.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AVIATION...NIELD
DISCUSSION...NIELD
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