551
FXUS63 KIND 100518
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
118 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOODING
THE PRIMARY THREATS
- ADDITIONAL RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE
- WARMER AND DRIER AGAIN NEXT WEEK, THOUGH WITH MORE MODEST HUMIDITY
THAN EXPERIENCED THE FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
EVALUATION OF THE LATEST CAMS AND HI RES ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, ALONG
WITH MRMS ESTIMATES OF THE EVENING'S PRECIPITATION, SUGGESTS A MUCH
LOWER THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST THAN
PREVIOUSLY FEARED, AND HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS A RESULT. THE BULK OF THE STRONGER
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV HAS IMPACTED AREAS
FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DO THE SAME, EVEN IF SOME ACTIVITY MANAGES
TO SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT ON THE NORTHEASTERN FLANKS
OF ANY DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HREF PROBABILITY
MATCHED MEANS SUGGEST FAR MORE LIMITED QPF THAN PRIOR RUNS OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA, WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH IN
THE CONTINUING FLOOD WATCH AREAS FOR OUR SOUTHERN NEIGHBORS.
DISCUSSION (THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED MCV NEAR ST. LOUIS
PROGRESSING EASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH AN MCS LIKELY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL IL AFTER 4PM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL WIDELY VARIED ON
SPECIFIC PLACEMENT OF THIS MCS, BUT GIVEN MCV AND LLJ PLACEMENT, THE
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS MCS TO MOVE THROUGH FAR SW PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL INDIANA BETWEEN 7-11PM THIS EVENING. SOUNDING ANALYSIS
SHOWS A QUASI-INVERTED "V" SOUNDING IN THE LOWERS 1KM OF WHICH IS
ALLOWING FOR 1000+ J/KG OF DCAPE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MICRO-SCALE
BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE COLD POOL, WITH A DAMAGING WIND GUST
THREAT DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. WITHIN ANY ORGANIZED SEGMENTS,
A WEAK TORNADIC SPIN UP IS POSSIBLE BUT GIVEN LCL HEIGHT AND WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR, THIS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED.
THE NEXT THREAT TONIGHT WILL RESIDE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A REMNANT
BOUNDARY TO DEVELOP FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE MCV. THIS BOUNDARY
COUPLED WITH A CONSISTENT 30-40KT LLJ COULD LEAD TO TRAINING
CONVECTION SOUTH OF A BLOOMINGTON TO COLUMBUS LINE BETWEEN 02-08Z
OVERNIGHT. IF THIS DOES OCCUR POCKETS OF 2-4" OVER A 6 HOUR PERIOD
WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT. AS THE LLJ WEAKENS
TOMORROW MORNING, CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE, WITH MOST
AREAS BECOMING DRY BY 10Z.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PASS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME TO A BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING, WITH CONVECTION LIKELY TO OCCUR BETWEEN 4PM AND 10PM FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK THIS
TIME AROUND, AND THEREFOR THE SEVERE RISK IS LOW FOR FRIDAY. THAT
SAID, THERE IS ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION THROUGH A DEEP SATURATED
COLUMN FOR AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST TO BE POSSIBLE. A QUICK INCH
IS POSSIBLE OVER A 30MIN PERIOD WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL, BUT THE
MOVEMENT ON THESE CELLS SHOULD BE FAST ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE FLOOD
THREAT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LATE TOMORROW EVENING, THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR OR
SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA, WITH ANOTHER NOCTURNAL LLJ EXPECTED TO
FORM. IF THIS BOUNDARY STAYS WITHIN CENTRAL INDIANA, THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERN FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK:
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO A WARMER AND
DRIER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. UNLIKE THE RECENT
HIGH HEAT IN LATE JUNE AND THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF JULY...TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH WILL KEEP
HEAT INDICES LARGELY MANAGEABLE FROM A HEAT STRESS STANDPOINT...
PEAKING IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S.
A FEW LINGERING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS AWAY TO THE SOUTH THE PRESENCE OF A
STRONG MID LEVEL CAP WILL LARGELY MITIGATE CONVECTIVE RISKS FROM
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WEAKENING THE CAP WITH A GREATER OPPORTUNITY
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION FOCUSED LARGELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A MORE PRONOUNCED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SUPPRESSES AND A COLD FRONT SAGS
SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...A
COOLER AIRMASS WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
IMPACTS:
- LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING
- CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION:
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT SEVERAL SITES LATE
TONIGHT WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
DAYBREAK. THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TO AROUND MIDDAY OR
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WIDESPREAD VFR RETURNS.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT MOST SITES, AND WILL CARRY A PROB30 GROUP AT ALL
BUT LAF FOR THIS POTENTIAL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWESTERLY MUCH OF THE PERIOD BELOW 10KT
BUT MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE IN THE PERIOD/FRIDAY NIGHT.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD
DISCUSSION...RYAN/UPDIKE
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