235
FXUS63 KIND 230707
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
307 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURNING THIS WEEKEND.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AND HEAT RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROMOTE QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
DEPICTS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL INDIANA WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S, LIGHT WINDS, AND CLEAR
SKIES HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL EFFICIENTLY OVERNIGHT
INTO THE 50S. LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL COOLING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S. A FEW RURAL LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S. EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS TO
DEVELOP LATER TODAY ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. DEEP
MIXING WILL LIKELY DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT PASSING WAVES ALOFT TO RESULT IN INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGEST SUBSIDENCE
INDUCED DRY AIR FROM THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SO THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY DRY. THAT SAID,
SUFFICIENT FORCING AND MOISTURE MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND PROVIDING MOSTLY
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALOFT, AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
THE ROCKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RETURN LOW
RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AT TIMES LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS
DURING THIS PERIOD. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME, BUT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR EACH DAY. THIS ALONG WITH ENHANCEMENT OF
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVES COULD SUPPORT A LOW
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR EAST
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AND WHERE THE SHORTWAVES ALOFT TRACK.
UNCERTAINTY WILL REMAIN HIGH UNTIL MODELS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED.
LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS AN EML ADVECTING TOWARDS THE REGION
WHICH LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES SHOULD
WARM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO THE LOW-MID 70S WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
PEAK HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
IMPACTS:
- NONE; VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION:
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DRY
COLUMN AMID SUBSIDENCE. DIURNAL VFR CU WILL BE PRESENT DURING
HEATING HOURS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AVIATION...MELO
DISCUSSION...MELO
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