454
FXUS63 KIND 231309
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
909 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURNING THIS WEEKEND.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AND HEAT RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
- SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY, BUT EXACT DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 909 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER WI/MI/NRN IL AND NRN IN. GOES19 SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
INDIANA. LIGHT NE SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. ALOFT, WATER VAPOR SHOWS STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
RESULTING IN NW FLOW FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS SPILLING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS SHOWN ACROSS INDIANA AND OHIO.
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE COMFORTABLE 50S.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE ONGOING FORECAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME SCT CU THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED, HOWEVER THEY WILL CAPPED BY THE SUGGESTED
MID LEVEL INVERSION. THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING. ONGOING FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 APPEAR ON THE MARK.
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROMOTE QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
DEPICTS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL INDIANA WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S, LIGHT WINDS, AND CLEAR
SKIES HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL EFFICIENTLY OVERNIGHT
INTO THE 50S. LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL COOLING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S. A FEW RURAL LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S. EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS TO
DEVELOP LATER TODAY ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. DEEP
MIXING WILL LIKELY DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT PASSING WAVES ALOFT TO RESULT IN INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGEST SUBSIDENCE
INDUCED DRY AIR FROM THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SO THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY DRY. THAT SAID,
SUFFICIENT FORCING AND MOISTURE MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND PROVIDING MOSTLY
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALOFT, AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
THE ROCKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RETURN LOW
RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AT TIMES LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS
DURING THIS PERIOD. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME, BUT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR EACH DAY. THIS ALONG WITH ENHANCEMENT OF
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVES COULD SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER, MAINLY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, THIS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAR EAST THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AND WHERE THE
SHORTWAVES ALOFT TRACK. UNCERTAINTY WILL REMAIN HIGH UNTIL MODELS
BECOME BETTER ALIGNED. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS AN EML
ADVECTING TOWARDS THE REGION WHICH LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES SHOULD
WARM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO THE LOW-MID 70S WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
PEAK HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 626 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
IMPACTS:
- NONE; VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION:
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS. DIURNAL VFR CU WILL BE PRESENT DURING
HEATING HOURS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF 040-080 DEGREES DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...PUMA
AVIATION...MELO
DISCUSSION...MELO
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