520
FXUS63 KIND 241328
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
928 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND COOLER WEATHER TODAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING
THIS WEEKEND.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AND HEAT RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT
EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 926 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH CONDITIONS
GENERALLY EVOLVING AS EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DRIFT TOWARDS INDIANA FROM THE WEST BUT AS IT MOVES INTO THE DRIER
AIRMASS THEY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH NO EXPECTATIONS FOR ANYTHING
BUT AN INCREASED AREA OF CLOUD COVER TOWARDS MID-AFTERNOON. THOSE
CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
MOST SITES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE
WEAK WITH ONLY SHALLOW MIXING, SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT TO SEE WINDS
STAY GENERALLY AT OR LESS THAN 5 MPH.
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR
INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATER
TODAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THE PASSING WAVE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE INDUCED DRY AIR IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. DEEP MIXING
WILL LIKELY DROP DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN NBM SUGGEST SO HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE WAS INCORPORATED.
ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE
SUGGEST SUBSIDENCE INDUCED DRY AIR FROM THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES SO THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY DRY. THAT
SAID, WEAK FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S SATURDAY.
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...
MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE
ROCKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW
SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THESE DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RETURN CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO THE
FORECAST AT TIMES LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN EML ADVECTING TOWARDS THE REGION WITHIN
SOUTHWESTERLY SHOULD KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS
DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST
MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE EACH DAY. THIS ALONG
WITH ENHANCEMENT OF MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVES
COULD SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER, MAINLY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER, THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR EAST
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AND WHERE THE SHORTWAVES ALOFT TRACK.
UNCERTAINTY WILL REMAIN HIGH UNTIL MODELS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED.
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES SHOULD
WARM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO THE LOW-MID 70S WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
PEAK HEAT INDICES AROUND OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 100F ON MONDAY.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
IMPACTS:
- NONE
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL STILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KT AND CONDITIONS RELATIVELY CALM. WINDS MAY BE
VARIABLE OR CALM AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...WHITE
AVIATION...MELO
DISCUSSION...MELO
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