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FXUS63 KIND 242331
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
731 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME ELEVATED HAZE AND SMOKE
FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 90S
- STORM COMPLEXES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHTS
DISCUSSION (THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
OVERVIEW.
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE, THOUGH SKIES MAY APPEAR HAZY DUE TO ELEVATED SMOKE IN
ADDITION TO THE HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A HEAT DOME EXPANDS EASTWARD.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL BRING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.
DRY WEATHER THEN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN CONTROL OF CENTRAL INDIANA WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY,
PROMOTING BROAD-SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS VEERING TO
SOUTHEASTERLY. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS, INCLUDING HRRR AND RAP SMOKE
TRANSPORT FIELDS, REVEALS A PERSISTENT PLUME OF ELEVATED WILDFIRE
SMOKE ADVECTING SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. THIS BRING A RETURN TO HAZY SKIES THROUGHOUT
SATURDAY; HOWEVER, BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING DEPTH AND SURFACE
CONCENTRATIONS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SURFACE VISIBILITY OR
AIR QUALITY IMPACTS.
AS THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL INTENSIFY. A 850 MB MOISTURE
PLUME WILL SURGE NORTHWARD, PUSHING SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW
TO MID-70S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEPENING MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5 TO 7.0 C/KM) BENEATH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S, YIELDING AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2500-3000
J/KG. HIGH MLCIN AND WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING SHOULD SUPPRESS DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME ON SUNDAY,
KEEPING CONDITIONS LARGELY CAP-INHIBITED UNTIL LATE EVENING.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE SYNOPTIC REGIME THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A MAJOR
UPPER-LEVEL HEAT DOME CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, PLACING THE
OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY IN A CLASSIC "RING OF FIRE"
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS, ECMWF, AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE SUITES (GEFS AND EPS) INDICATES MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, INTERACTING WITH
THE WARM, UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO TRIGGER ORGANIZED STORM
COMPLEXES BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR IMPACTS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
BASED ON THE CURRENT AXIS OF THE RIDGE, BUT THAT LOOKS TO GENERALLY
BE MORE FOCUSED TOWARDS NORTHEAST INDIANA. THAT BEING SAID, THERE
MAY BE A SOUTHWESTWARD TREND IN WHERE THE STORM COMPLEXES MAY IMPACT
AS THE GLOBAL MODELS OFTEN PIN THE INITIATION POINT TOO FAR NORTH
AND DON'T TRACK THE PROGRESSION ALONG THE THETA-E GRADIENT AS WELL
AS SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS.
HIGH DCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG AND PWAT VALUES NEAR 2.00
INCHES WILL MAKE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY ORGANIZED MCS. IN ADDITION TO THE STORM
THREATS, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100-105 RANGE MONDAY
WHICH MAY NEED HEAT HEADLINES IN THE COMING DAYS.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY, DRIER CONTINENTAL
AIR WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES, PUSHING THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL HOVER IN THE UPPER 80S WITH REDUCED
DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER, GLOBAL ENSEMBLES AGREE ON SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISING ABOVE 590DM, COMBINED WITH STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION
AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, WILL DRIVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID-
90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
IMPACTS:
- NONE
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH NO IMPACTFUL
WEATHER. ONGOING DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS WITH A SCT TO BKN CIRRUS DECK REMAINING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
BEGIN E/NE BELOW 5KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO THE S/SSW BY THE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONAL DIURNAL CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SCT TO BKN DECKS AROUND 4-5KFT. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KBMG, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE
CIG/VIS IMPACTS.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AVIATION...UPDIKE
DISCUSSION...WHITE
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