017
FXUS63 KIND 141651
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1251 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN
THIS MORNING
- THE ADDITIONAL RAIN MAY WORSEN AN ALREADY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
EVENT.
- SOME SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY, MAINLY IN THE PREDAWN
TO MORNING HOURS
- ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
- WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY BEFORE DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER SETTLES IN SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 903 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL IL TO INDIANAPOLIS AND THEN EAST TO DAYTON.
GOES19 SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM IA,
ACROSS IL TO INDIANA AND OH. CLOUD TOPS WERE WARMING, INDICATING A
GENERAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. BEST AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WAS OVER
SE IL AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA WHERE A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WERE LOCATED. THE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINED FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. MORE RAIN COOLED,
COLD POOL AIR WAS FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA.
THIS AFTERNOON, THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO WANE AS
INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED. 310K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE CONTINUES TO SHOW LIFT INTO THE AFTERNOON AMID
HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY
OUT SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE DAY HIGH CAPE
AND HIGH PWATS RETURN. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S MAY
BE DIFFICULT TO REACH GIVEN THE CLOUDS THAT SHOULD BE LINGERING MUCH
OF THE DAY. HRRR SUGGESTS RAIN WILL END LATER THIS MORNING, GIVING
WAY TO CLOUDY SKIES. THUS WILL KEEP HIGH POPS THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
BUT TREND TOWARD LOW CHC POPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ANY CONVECTION
BE ABLE TO ESTABLISH. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AS CLOUDS AND A RAIN
COOLED AIR MASS SHOULD HAMPER QUICK RISES OF TEMPERATURE. HIGHS WILL
BE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER TO THE LOWER 80S.
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
THROUGH MID-MORNING...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS AN 850MB JET INCREASES AND
PROVIDES LIFT OVER A SURFACE BOUNDARY. SHEAR AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY HAS ALREADY LEAD TO LARGE HAIL REPORTS, AND SOME
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE HAS OCCURRED AS WELL.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAWN WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL SETUP.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES, HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
THREAT WITH ANY STORM. POTENTIAL TRAINING OF STORMS WILL INCREASE
THE FLOODING THREAT. UNFORTUNATELY, ENSEMBLES FOCUS THE HEAVIEST
RAIN ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA, INCLUDING AREAS
ALREADY HIT HARD BY FLOODING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS ALSO SUPPORT
THOSE AREAS POTENTIALLY SEEING THAT HEAVY RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO
MESSAGE THE HEIGHTENED THREAT.
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN DIURNALLY AFTER SUNRISE AS THE 850MB JET
WEAKENS, BUT THAT HASN'T ALWAYS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY. WENT HIGH
POPS THROUGH AROUND 12Z FOR THE NORTH 5/8 OF THE AREA OR SO, THEN
DROPPED THEM BACK INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH NO DECENT
FORCING AND A WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE. DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON, SOME RECOVERY WILL OCCUR SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AROUND MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW WELL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT TODAY AND HOW
FAR SOUTH THE THICKER CLOUDS INITIALLY GET. FOR NOW HAVE LOWERED
GUIDANCE A BIT NORTH WHERE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER LONGEST. WENT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST. THESE
MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED LATER.
WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE, HEAT INDICES MAY
EXCEED 100 DEGREES SOUTHWEST.
TONIGHT...
SOME UPPER ENERGY MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. IF CLOUD COVER REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW
SOUTHWEST, SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
AN UPPER WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE END OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND MOVE
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHERN INDIANA ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING FORCING TO INTERACT WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION. THE BULK OF THIS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA,
CLOSER TO THE UPPER FORCING. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH AND BRING SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING. WILL GO MAINLY HIGH CHANCE
POPS NORTH WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH. THESE WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE UPPER WAVE EXITS.
SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN EXPECTED INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR.
THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO MIDDLE 90S, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDICES OF 100-105
DEGREES.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
SOME ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW, AND
THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF CONVECTION, HEAT INDICES OVER 100 ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS TO MOST AREAS DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...
ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA, SO WILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS AROUND. HIGHEST POPS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE TIMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, BUT COOLER
AIR MAY RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
IMPACTS:
- LINGERING SHOWER IMPACTS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
- MAINLY QUIET THIS EVENING, BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AT LAF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION:
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN FAR WEST CENTRAL IN. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM W-NW AT 6-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO E-NE AT 4-6 KTS
TONIGHT AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY BECOMES POSITIONS JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE FAR NORTH PART OF THE REGION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING MVFR CIG/VSBY IMPACTS TO LAF.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH WINDS BECOMING S-SW
SATURDAY MORNING AROUND 4-6 KTS.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-069>072.
UPDATE...PUMA
AVIATION...WFO PAH
DISCUSSION...50
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