141
FXUS63 KIND 021739
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
139 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 105 ARE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
DEEP RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT DRIVER
OF OUR UPCOMING WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WARM SW FLOW HAS
PUSHED TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100 EACH
AFTERNOON, PROMPTING A HEAT ADVISORIES UNTIL 8PM THURSDAY.
THE RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WHICH COULD INTRODUCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS EARLY AS LATE IN THE
DAY THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS AS IT
IS UNCLEAR ON HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT BACK WEST AND IT'S
AMPLITUDE. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE IS HIGH, BUT HOW FAR SOUTH THIS AREA OF CONVECTION REACHES IS
WHERE CONFIDENCE WANES. CURRENTLY THE EXPECTATION IS FOR A MAJORITY
OF ANY PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA, BUT THE MARGIN FOR ERROR IS SMALL. SHOULD THESE STORMS MAKE IT
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA, THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THEM
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
A STRENGTHENING TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL HELP TO PUSH THE
RIDGE FURTHER WEST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING AND LOCATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER GOING INTO THE WEEKEND BUT STILL
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. THE START OF THE NEW WEEK COULD SEE
NEARER TO NORMAL TEMPS BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR POPS.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
IMPACTS:
- SW WIND GUSTS 16-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
- SUB 30% CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR LAF THIS EVENING
AND AT IND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION:
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS HIGH
COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL
SUSTAIN MODEST SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 23Z WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KTS.
A GRAVITY WAVE NOTED ON RADAR, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY, WILL MOVE SE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THIS FEATURE MAY AID IN SLIGHTLY GREATER CLOUD COVER
BEING GENERATED BETWEEN 050-100 ALONG WITH A 1-2 HR PERIOD OF WEAKER
SURFACE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FEATURE.
RECENT SATELITTE IMAGERY TRENDS AGREE WITH SHORT TERM COMPUTER
MODELS THAT A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN CENTRAL IL DURING THE 19-22Z
TIME PERIOD, BEFORE MOVING INTO FAR NW PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IN (NEAR
KLAF) AROUND 23Z. A PROB30 WAS CONSIDERING FOR THIS POTENTIAL, BUT
CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO BE INCLUDED ATTM.
FOR TOMORROW, THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS CAPPED AND
THEREFORE MORE UNSTABLE. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTIES REIGN SUPREME
REGARDING THE LOCATION OF ANY FOCUSING MECHANISM IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. ONE POSSIBLE SCENARIO IS THAT THE INDY HEAT ISLAND WILL
INITIATE SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE E-NE OF THE CITY. FOR NOW, GIVEN
THAT'S A 24-30 HR FORECAST, WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF VCSH/TS.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-
051>057-060>065-067>072.
AVIATION...CROSBIE
DISCUSSION...KF/UPDIKE
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