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FXUS63 KIND 031335
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
935 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 108 DEGREES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
LATE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA, BUT A SHORTWAVE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE PERIPHERY AND PUSH JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TODAY WILL BE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO INITIATE ALONG THIS SHORT WAVE ARE ABLE TO SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES AS THEY NEAR CENTRAL INDIANA. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION
IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, AS STEERING FLOW AND A MID LEVEL DRY LAYER WILL
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE PROGRESSION.
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE HIGH ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
THERE IS SOME SIGNS OF MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY DROP DEW
POINTS A FEW DEGREES. A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18KT WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS THE PBL BECOMES MIXED THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TODAY, KEEPING THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY IN PLACE. UPPER TROUGHING TO THE NE MAY START TO NUDGE
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY, WEAKENING THE SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT. THIS, PLUS EXPECTED UPSTREAM CONVECTION, COULD BRING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE LINE OF
CONVECTION GETS REMAINS LOW THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. SHOULD THESE STORMS REACH CENTRAL INDIANA,
CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE IN THE FORM OF BRIEF DAMAGING
WINDS OR HAIL, BUT THIS THREAT IS QUITE CONDITIONAL. TIMING ON THE
STORMS ALSO COMES WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON
SMALL SCALE FEATURES. ISOLATED STORMS COULD POP UP AS EARLY AS
THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOST OF THE LATEST RUNS ARE LEANING MORE SO
TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING CONVECTION. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY.
HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AND A LACK OF SKY
COVER AND CONVECTION WILL ONLY KEEP THE HEAT AROUND THAT MUCH
LONGER. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 90S THROUGH FRIDAY AND
EVEN INTO SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MAX HEAT INDICES NEAR
TO ABOVE 105.
THE RIDGE AXIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE INTO THE WEEKEND
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES
NEARER TO NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. ANOTHER WARMING TREND LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A SYSTEM POSSIBLY BRINGING ADDITIONAL
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
IMPACTS:
- WEST-SOUTHWEST GUSTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON UP TO 12-15KT
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORMS IN OUR NORTH TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAY IMPACT LAF AND IND BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS.
OTHERWISE OCCASIONAL CIRRUS WILL OVERSEE VERY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS
THAT WILL AGAIN PROMOTE FEW/SCT CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND
MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH 14Z WILL YIELD TO ANOTHER DAY OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY TO WEST-SOUHWEST BY LATE
DAY. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS SHOULD REACH 14-15KT AT KIND/KLAF THIS
AFTERNOON.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-
051>057-060>065-067>072.
UPDATE...UPDIKE
AVIATION...KF
DISCUSSION...KF
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