143
FXUS63 KIND 240140
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
940 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
- DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT.
- PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BEGIN TO BREAK THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE THIS EVENING. RADAR SHOWS MOST ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA, AND COVERAGE HAS BEEN
DECREASING. MEANWHILE, OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN SHOWING PATCHY DRIZZLE
INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
BASED ON THESE, HAVE WENT WITH MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT AND HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA SO IT COVERS MOST OF CENTRAL
INDIANA.
HAVE NUDGED DOWN LOW TEMPERATURES SOME AREAS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
DISCUSSION (THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STILL CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WITH EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. MEANWHILE A LOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TO MEANDER NEAR THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE LOW AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE LATEST IND ACARS SOUNDING DEPICTS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND
850 MB WHICH IS TRAPPING THIS MOISTURE. THE STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO
THE INVERSION. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS CEILINGS LOWER. WEAK OVERALL
FORCING WILL KEEP QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE ALSO LIMITED
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT.
SOME GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO THE REGION, BUT MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN. THIS SHOULD HELP CLEAR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS CONSIDERABLY.
MAX TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES AS LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. COOLER-DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
TO MID 50S.
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FROM UPPER RIDGING SHIFTING EASTWARD AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET. LESS CLOUD
COVER COMPARED TO TODAY SHOULD ALSO FAVOR A SLIGHT MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES, CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. MIN RH
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 40 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS OF LATE, MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR A LOW-END FIRE DANGER. NEAR CALM WINDS WILL HELP TO LIMIT THAT
THREAT THOUGH.
LOOKING FURTHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S
LOOK TO RETURN DUE TO INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION. GRADUALLY
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE ALSO
DEPICTS ANOMALOUS MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOAKING RAINS. HOWEVER, EXACT DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS.
AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
IMPACTS:
- MVFR/IFR CEILINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION:
ALTHOUGH KHUF/KBMG HAVE BRIEFLY RETURNED TO VFR, MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD MOVE BACK IN SOON. WILL THUS KEEP THEM MVFR TO START THE
PERIOD.
LOWER CEILINGS AND SOME DRIZZLE WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE SITES THIS
EVENING, LOWERING CEILINGS TO IFR FOR A PERIOD. PREDOMINANT CEILINGS
WILL THEN RETURN TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER
MUCH OF THE DAY IN MVFR, VFR WILL RETURN LATE IN THE PERIOD TO MOST
SITES.
THERE WILL BE SOME BOUNCING OF CEILINGS BETWEEN CATEGORIES THROUGH
THE PERIOD, BUT TRIED TO PIN DOWN THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORIES IN THE
TAFS.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...50
AVIATION...50
DISCUSSION...MELO/ECKHOFF
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