204
FXUS63 KIND 120151
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
951 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT EAST AND SOUTH. LOCALLY DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE
- NEAR RECORD HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
- PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MIDWEEK
- COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR NEXT WEEKEND WITH GROWING
CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD FROST SATURDAY NIGHT
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 951 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
FAR EASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE TO THE WEST.
WINDS HAVE LESSENED TO NEAR CALM AT MOST AREAS WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE NEARBY.
THE COMBINATION OF THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY.
THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT, WITH NOT HAVING CLEARED OUT MUCH BEFORE SUNSET.
THE SOUTH CENTRAL FORECAST AREA DID CLEAR OUT A LITTLE EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THIS AREA HAD MORE RAIN RECENTLY.
GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE, BELIEVE THAT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA. HAVE LEFT IN THE FOG MENTION EAST AND
EXPANDED IT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN BACKING OFF ON THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IT WAS
SHOWING EARLIER. ENSEMBLES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN A MILE
VISIBILITY, MAINLY EAST. WITH THE HRRR BACKING OFF ON WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG, HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR
FOG, BUT DID ENHANCE THE WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.
OTHERWISE, LOWERED THE LOW TEMPERATURES SOME BASED ON RECENT TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS.
DISCUSSION (THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SET TO BUILD IN IMMEDIATELY FOR THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NEAR RECORD BREAKING WARMTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR
MIDWEEK WITH PERIODIC RAIN AND STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY
EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES
WERE MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE WABASH VALLEY WITH THICKER CLOUDS LARGELY
CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 69. TEMPERATURES VARIED WIDELY
AS A RESULT OF THE CLOUDS...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60 IN EASTERN
COUNTIES TO THE MID 70S IN THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY.
THE DEPARTURE OF THE STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF ISAIAS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
WITH WINDS BECOMING NEAR CALM...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PATCHY FOG
FORMATION IN THE PREDAWN HOURS THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY FOCUSED
PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FOG WILL
BURN OFF QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING COMMENCES.
THE ARRIVAL AND EXPANSION OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON MONDAY WILL SIGNAL AN ABRUPT TRANSITION...AND THE FIRST OF
SEVERAL UPCOMING OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...AS STRONGER SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE AS IT SETTLES ALONG THE GULF COAST.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE AND RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS MAY
FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES IN THE WABASH VALLEY BOTH DAYS. FOR KIND...
RECORD HIGHS OF 86 FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THREATENED.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT SOUTH TOWARDS
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY BUT ANY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TO THE NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT DRIVEN FIRST BY AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES AND THEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY BY A DEEPENING NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST WHILE
INITIATING A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE REGION LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN A
QUASI-STATIONARY STATE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK BEFORE LIFTING
BACK NORTH THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND INCREASED UPPER JET PHASING. RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION AS A
RESULT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MULTIPLE SURFACE WAVES RIDE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. THERE REMAINS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND RAINFALL
POSES SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PROSPECT. WITH A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
POOLING ALONG THE FRONT AIDED IN PART FROM REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE
TWO EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANES...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
LOCATIONS TO SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE AND AMPLIFY ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN PLACE. HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S ON
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S SATURDAY MAKING FOR THE COOLEST
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED IN OVER 5 MONTHS. WHILE A LACK OF
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING MAY LIMIT FROST ACCRUAL TO SHELTERED
LOCALES FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN A WIDESPREAD
FROST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE
30S. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE SQUARELY ON THE TABLE FOR SOME OF
OUR NORMAL COOL SPOTS AS WELL SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
IMPACTS:
- PATCHY FOG AT KIND/KBMG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
- WIND GUSTS OF 15-20KT AT KLAF/KHUF MONDAY AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION:
LOWER CLOUDS HAVE EXITED TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES, AND SOME
CIRRUS WILL MOVE IN AT TIMES TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. MOST FOG SHOULD BE EAST OF
THE SITES, BUT SOME SHALLOW FOG WILL LIKELY EXTEND WEST TO KIND AND
KBMG. IF FOG GETS DEEP ENOUGH, WORSE CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT KBMG.
FOG WILL MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG WITH MIXING WILL PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 10KT AND SOME
GUSTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MOST GUSTS EXPECTED AT KLAF/KHUF.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...50
AVIATION...50
DISCUSSION...RYAN
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