848
FXUS63 KIWX 161700
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1200 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- ALTHOUGH DELAYED BY CLOUD COVER TODAY, WARM UP STILL ON TRACK
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE WARMEST OCCURING TUESDAY.
- SERIES OF STRONGER SYSTEMS ARRIVE MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
- WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
WAA WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE AREA, POINTING TOWARDS EVENTUALLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OR SO OF THE FORECAST. BEFORE
WE GET THERE, THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE HAS SET
UP A NICE INVERSION, ROUGHLY 4KFT IN DEPTH PER 00Z KDTX SOUNDING.
UNTIL THE MAIN AXIS OF THE HIGH GET FAR ENOUGH EAST, WE WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO GET RID OF THE CLOUDS WITH SATELLITE SHOWING A WESTWARD
EXPANSION FOR THE TIME BEING INTO IL. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER
THROUGH 18Z WITH A SUBTLE IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN FAR WESTERN AREAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY, IF NOT
CLOUDY SKIES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. HIGHS HAVE BEEN
LOWERED TODAY A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUD COVER.
A PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN US WILL EJECT NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MAIN
SURFACE LOW AND BEST ENERGY LOOKS TO REMAIN NW OF THE AREA WITH
LITTLE MORE THAN A MOISTURE STARVED FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE LIMITED ANY POPS TO SLGT CHC AND COULD SEE NO
MEASURABLE PRECIP OCCURRING WITH THIS FEATURE.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AS THE WESTERN
TROUGH EJECTS TOWARDS THE REGION BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE WITH
IT. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH PRECIP INITIALLY STRUGGLING IN THE DRY AIRMASS.
HOWEVER, TRENDS STILL POINT TOWARDS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT
ARRIVING BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY TO BRING A BRIEF ROUND
OF AT LEAST LIKELY TO CAT POPS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT LIKELY
TO BE HIGH, ON THE ORDER OF MAYBE A QUARTER INCH OR SO. DRY SLOT
WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WHAT MAY
BE THE LAST OCCURRENCE OF 60+ DEGREE TEMPS FOR A WHILE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY WHAT LOOKS TO BE
A DEEP UPPER LOW STARTING OVER THE DAKOTAS AT 12Z WED AND THEN
PROGRESSING EAST TO REACH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY 6Z THU. FROM
HERE, MODELS DIVERGE MORE AND MORE, LEADING TO A WIDE VARIETY OF
POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPES. BY IN
LARGE RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE DOMINANT TYPE, BUT THE DEEPER AND
FURTHER EAST SOLUTIONS OF THE SFC LOW COULD BRING SOME LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW MIXING IN, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. WAY TO EARLY TO
MESS WITH ANY SORT OF MIXED PRECIP AS LOTS OF FINER DETAILS TO SORT
OUT. IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR COLDER WEATHER, IT WILL BE ARRIVING FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE DEEPENING SYSTEM WILL BRING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF WIND WED INTO THURSDAY WITH CURRENT WIND FORECASTS
POSSIBLY UNDERDONE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1156 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE WILL KEEP THE STRATUS CEILING IN PLACE
FOR BOTH TAF SITES AT/AROUND 3000 FT, THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR
BOUNCING UP AND DOWN WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT
EXPECTATION IS MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 8 KNOTS WILL ALSO PREVAIL.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...ANDERSEN
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