156
FXUS63 KIWX 171733
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1233 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
- ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S INTO TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY 40S.
- ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES EXIST WED AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY,
BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND POSSIBLE PRECIP TYPES REMAINS
VERY LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
NARROW SWATH OF INCREASING PWATS (0.75 TO 1") WAS NOTED TO THE WEST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF E IA INTO NW IL BEING DRAWN UP BY A NORTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE. WHILE THIS AXIS OF MOISTURE SLOWLY EDGES EAST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, A STRUGGLE TO OVERCOME A DRY LOW LEVEL
LAYER, PLUS OUTRUNNING OF LIFT FROM THE WAVE WILL SEVERELY
LIMIT ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z MON. WILL KEEP
A TOKEN 15% POPS MAINLY TO BLEND WITH SURROUNDING NEIGHBORS,
BUT HIGHLY DOUBT ANYTHING MEASURABLE OCCURS.
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE EDGING NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA MON
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH BETTER LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE.
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT,
OVERALL QPF WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE (LESS THAN 0.25").
WARMEST DAY FOR THE NEXT WEEK (AT LEAST) WILL OCCUR TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S BEFORE DEEPENING UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. A LOT OF VARIABILITY CONTINUES OF THE LOW AS WELL
AS POTENTIAL RAPID TRANSLATION OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE TO
THE EAST COAST. MODEL BLEND HAS LOWERED POPS SOMEWHAT WITH
GFS/EC AND CANADIAN IN SEMI DECENT AGREEMENT. WHILE A PERIOD OF
SYNOPTIC FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT PRECIP IS EXPECTED WED-FRI
ACROSS THE AREA, FINER DETAILS ON TEMPERATURE PROFILES (MOST
IMPORTANTLY WET BULB TEMPS), QPF, TRAJECTORY OVER THE LAKE AND
GROUND TEMPS ALL LEAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. ONLY ELEMENT
OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE REMAINS WITH INCREASING WINDS WED-THU AS
THE LOW WRAPS UP AND WE END UP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
DEEPENING SFC LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
ALSO BROUGHT A BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 15
KNOTS AT THE SURFACE THAT HAS HELPED TO BRING SOME INCREASED
MIXING TO HELP LIFT CIGS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BEFORE CIGS LOWER
TO NEAR 5000 FEET AFTER 00Z MONDAY FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
HOWEVER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...ANDERSEN
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